Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 28 July 2026
NSW demand sits at 9,112 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $71.40/MWh — up sharply from the 05:10-05:30 trough where prices briefly touched $0.01/MWh on demand near 7,090-7,500 MW. The overnight-to-morning ramp is textbook winter demand: demand climbed roughly 2,600 MW between 05:00 and 08:00 as the morning heating load and commercial start-up coincided with minimal solar output (current solar potential reads 0, with only 6% cloud cover but low winter sun angle limiting generation). This demand-price relationship is highly elastic in NSW today — every 500-1,000 MW step up in demand through the morning ramp has consistently pushed prices up $15-40/MWh, visible in the 06:00-07:30 window where demand rose from 8,100 MW to 9,950 MW and prices moved from $70 to $112.78/MWh.
The forecast trajectory points to a stronger price response through the morning peak than yesterday's pattern. AEMO's forecast has prices climbing to $89.09/MWh by 07:30, $109.17/MWh by 08:00, and peaking near $125.02/MWh around 10:30 AEST — a period that historically aligns with NSW's morning demand plateau above 10,000 MW. This mirrors yesterday's actual outcome, where demand peaked at 10,556 MW at 08:00 AEST with price hitting $95-113/MWh through that window, before easing into the afternoon trough (demand fell to 7,208 MW by 17:00 with prices near $54/MWh).
Current generation mix shows black coal covering 5,845 MW (64% of dispatched generation) with wind at 1,920 MW, indicating thermal plant is carrying the bulk of the morning ramp while wind contributes moderately. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5997 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 31.74%, consistent with the low-solar, coal-heavy morning profile. No specific NSW demand-side notices are active today, though the SA region has active LOR1 conditions forecast for 07:00-12:00 and 17:00-22:30 AEST tied to tight reserve margins — this doesn't directly constrain NSW demand but signals thin regional reserves that could tighten interconnector flows and add modest upward pressure to NSW pricing during those windows if SA imports increase. Afternoon and evening forecasts moderate to the $84-85/MWh range through 14:00-18:00 AEST as demand eases post-morning-peak, with the next price uplift expected into the evening ramp after 19:00 AEST as historical patterns from yesterday's 20:00-21:30 spike (reaching $134.85/MWh on 10,157 MW demand) suggest.