Load Advisor: Thursday 23 July 2026
The overnight trough presents the best NEM-wide load-shifting window today, with QLD1 forecasting negative prices from 12:30am to 5:30am AEST, bottoming at -$6.50/MWh around 4:30am. NSW1 and VIC1 both fall to roughly $10.50-$11/MWh across 2:00am-6:30am, while SA1's low sits higher at $12-$38/MWh due to tighter local conditions. TAS1 offers a longer overnight trough (2:00am-6:00am at $9.74-$10.19/MWh) but its best window actually falls in daytime hours, with prices bottoming near $5.16-$7.64/MWh between 11:00am and 5:00pm AEST as low heating demand and moderate wind persist.
Peak periods to avoid are concentrated in the morning shoulder across NSW1, SA1, and QLD1. NSW1 climbs sharply from $42.54/MWh at 6:30am to a plateau near $96-98/MWh between 8:00am and 11:00am. SA1 is the most volatile region today, spiking to $99-105/MWh through the 7:30am-1:00pm window before easing in the afternoon — this is the priciest sustained block in the NEM today. QLD1 mirrors this pattern, rising from single digits before 6:00am to $88-94/MWh between 8:00am and 11:30am. VIC1's peak is comparatively mild, topping out near $56/MWh around 8:30am, making it the least volatile mainland region today.
The strongest savings opportunity is QLD1's overnight window, where shifting load into the 1:00am-5:30am block avoids the 8:00am-11:30am peak entirely, capturing swings exceeding $95/MWh. SA1 offers the largest single-window saving on record today (over $114/MWh vs peak) in the 5:30-6:30am slot, but this window carries high risk given the region's price volatility and should be treated as a narrow, time-critical opportunity rather than a broad target.
Recommended scheduling: shift all shiftable NSW1, VIC1, and QLD1 load into the 2:00am-6:00am AEST block, prioritising QLD1 loads first given negative pricing. SA1 flexible load should target 3:00-5:30am to capture sub-$40/MWh pricing while avoiding the higher-risk 6:30am slot. TAS1 operators have the most