Commodity Demand — SA1: Wednesday 8 July 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,548 MW as of 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $130.44/MWh — a relatively benign level compared to the extreme volatility seen overnight and this morning. The current 5.30am price band (spot data timestamped for 9 July's early trading) reflects the tail end of a demand ramp: prices spiked to $845–$16,971/MWh between 07:35pm and 07:45pm AEST last evening as demand climbed from ~1,940 MW to a peak near 2,046 MW, before easing back through the 2,000 MW mark by mid-morning and settling into the 1,300–1,600 MW band overnight. That $16,970.86/MWh print at 07:40pm illustrates SA's characteristic price sensitivity: a roughly 5% demand increase (from ~1,940 MW to ~2,046 MW) was enough to trigger price escalation of more than 30-fold, consistent with tight reserve margins and thin marginal capacity above 2,000 MW.
Today's price forecast trajectory points to renewed volatility during the evening peak. AEMO's forward curve shows forecast prices climbing from $244.90/MWh at 7:00pm to $448.46/MWh by 8:30pm, easing to $305/MWh at 9:00pm before another spike to $448.27/MWh at 9:30pm — consistent with the demand-price relationship already evident in today's data, where every ~50-100 MW step above 1,800 MW has produced disproportionate price responses. A second, sharper escalation is forecast for tomorrow's morning peak, with prices lifting from $262/MWh at 7:00am to a sustained $300-330/MWh band between 7:30am and 1:00pm, reflecting the same steep demand-price curve seen in this morning's ramp to over 2,000 MW.
Generation mix context supports the price behaviour: wind is currently contributing 562.87 MW and gas (OCGT + CCGT combined) 797.91 MW, with solar at zero given the 8:30pm timestamp — renewable penetration sits at 41.37% and carbon intensity at 0.3405 tCO2/MWh. Wind output has been the key swing factor overnight, with renewable share collapsing to as low as 13-14% around 5:00-7:00am when prices peaked, then recovering above 50% through the afternoon as demand eased and prices fell into the $100-130/