Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 9 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $133.62/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1,545 MW, well down from the overnight peak of 2,050 MW recorded around 19:35-19:40 (in UTC, ~09:35-09:40 AEST this morning). That peak drove prices to $240.01/MWh at 06:45 UTC and $259.93/MWh at 06:55 UTC — a pattern showing SA's price sensitivity is steep once demand pushes above ~1,900 MW, with the region relying on GAS_CCGT (649.81 MW) and GAS_OCGT (472.17 MW) as marginal plant during those windows. Wind is contributing just 249.42 MW currently and solar is at zero, consistent with the 9.4°C temperature, low 7.5 km/h wind speed, and 13% cloud cover reducing renewable output — renewable penetration sits at 19.92% with carbon intensity at 0.4463 tCO2/MWh.
The demand trajectory through today follows a typical winter shape: overnight low around 1,000-1,100 MW (03:00-05:00 AEST), a sharp morning ramp to the 2,000+ MW band between 08:00-10:00 AEST as heating load and commercial demand build, then a gradual afternoon decline. Forecast RRP data for the evening/overnight period shows prices easing to $162-191/MWh through the 21:00-22:30 UTC window (07:00-08:30 AEST tomorrow), before dropping sharply overnight — forecast RRP falls to $94-97/MWh between 02:00-05:00 UTC and as low as $10.20-22.20/MWh in the 17:00-18:00 UTC window (afternoon AEST), reflecting the identified low-price windows in the load-shifting data with zero renewable carbon intensity tagged.
Demand-side risk factors are limited today: no active LOR (Lack of Reserve) notices are current for SA, with the most recent SA reserve notice (LOR1 forecast for 14 July) not applicable to today's trading. However, market notices show a history of AEMO interventions in SA for voltage control (Torrens Island and Barker Inlet directions in early July), indicating the region's synchronous generation adequacy remains a live operational consideration during low-wind, low-solar periods like today's conditions. Traders should watch the 08:00-10:00 AEST