Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 7 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $122.16/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up from an overnight low near $76-92/MWh but well below this morning's peak of $181.05/MWh recorded around 16:50 AEST yesterday's trading day. Demand has climbed to 1,534 MW and continues rising into the morning ramp. Over the past 24 hours prices have ranged from $76 to $181/MWh, tracking the typical demand-driven pattern of overnight troughs and morning/evening peaks.
The current generation mix is wind-dominated: wind is contributing 880 MW, gas CCGT 293 MW, gas OCGT 244 MW, and batteries 50 MW, with solar at zero given the 20:30 AEST interval falls outside daylight hours. Renewable penetration sits at 63.4%, consistent with SA's typical evening profile once solar drops off. Carbon intensity is 0.206 tCO2/MWh, up from a midday low of 0.122-0.148 tCO2/MWh (achieved when renewable penetration peaked near 78% around 16:00 AEST) as gas generation fills the gap left by falling wind and zero solar output.
Predispatch forecasts point to a volatile day ahead. Prices are expected to firm to $130-148/MWh through the 21:00-23:00 AEST window before easing overnight to the $75-95/MWh range between 03:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow. The standout risk is the 09:30 AEST forecast interval tomorrow, which spikes to $298.20/MWh — traders should watch this closely alongside the broader 07:00-12:00 AEST window, where forecasts sit persistently between $158-178/MWh. Low-carbon, low-cost charging windows are identified between 02:00 and 07:00 AEST tomorrow, averaging $82-98/MWh with savings of $199-216/MWh versus peak pricing.
On notices, AEMO cancelled the forecast LOR1 condition for SA (14 July, 00:00-02:00 AEST) as of 14:00 on 7 July, meaning no reserve shortfall is currently forecast for that period. No active market interventions or directions are currently in place for SA, though the region has seen frequent voltage-related directions to AGL's Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units over the past week, reflecting ongoing synchronous generation requirements as ren