Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 6 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $110.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking above the region's overnight average after a volatile 24 hours that swung from -$7.01/MWh during the midday solar trough (13:40-19:00) to a peak of $118.83/MWh in yesterday evening's demand ramp. Demand currently reads 1,558 MW, up from the sub-900 MW overnight minimum recorded around 03:15-04:00. The negative pricing stretch lasted roughly five and a half hours as rooftop and utility solar output pushed wholesale prices below zero, a recurring pattern on clear winter days with low demand.
Generation mix at 19:55 AEST shows wind dominating at 1,205 MW, well ahead of combined gas output of 346 MW (180 MW CCGT, 166 MW OCGT). Solar has dropped to zero with the evening ramp-down, and battery output is negligible at this snapshot. Renewable penetration sits at 77.7%, consistent with the strong wind contribution, while carbon intensity reads 0.1265 tCO2/MWh — near the lower end of today's range, which spanned from 0.0805 tCO2/MWh during the 14:30 solar peak to 0.3241 tCO2/MWh during the 07:30 morning ramp when wind was lighter and gas plant filled demand.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming evening peak: prices are expected to reach $174.64/MWh at 23:00 AEST before easing to $101-92/MWh through midnight. Overnight into Wednesday, forecast prices ease further to the $75-90/MWh band between 02:00 and 05:30 AEST, aligning with the identified low-cost load-shifting window (77-83 $/MWh, zero carbon intensity) from 02:30-06:00 AEST tomorrow. Prices then climb sharply again through Wednesday morning, with predispatch showing $120-151/MWh across the 08:00-10:00 AEST block as demand ramps and solar has yet to build.
On notices, AEMO has issued a Forecast LOR1 condition for SA covering 00:00-02:00 AEST on 14 July, with a capacity reserve requirement of 424 MW against 388 MW minimum available — worth monitoring but not an immediate operational concern. No active market interventions are currently in place for SA1, though the region saw multiple voltage