Load Advisor: Thursday 25 June 2026

NEM-wide spot prices are currently elevated across the mainland, with NSW sitting at $144.84/MWh on 8,978 MW of demand, VIC at $148.84/MWh on 6,218 MW, and SA at $135.11/MWh on 1,572 MW. QLD is relatively softer at $130.40/MWh on 6,784 MW. Tasmania is the clear outlier at $71.94/MWh — the lowest spot price on the NEM right now. Predispatch forecasts show prices rising sharply across NSW, VIC, and SA into the 06:30–13:00 AEST window, with NSW peaking above $289/MWh at 23:00 AEST and VIC reaching $283/MWh at the same interval. QLD follows a similar but shallower morning ramp, cresting near $224/MWh around 23:00 AEST before easing. All regions face sustained morning peaks; operators with any load flexibility should treat the 07:00–14:00 AEST block as a firm avoidance window across the board.

The best load-shifting opportunities are concentrated in the overnight trough. In NSW, the prime window is 10:30–11:30 AEST (00:30–01:30 UTC) at an average $87/MWh, saving approximately $203/MWh against the forecast morning peak — the largest absolute saving available anywhere in the NEM today. A secondary NSW window runs 09:30–10:30 AEST at ~$95/MWh. In QLD, prices will fall to around $72–$73/MWh between 10:00 and 11:30 AEST, making it the cheapest mainland region during that period and saving up to $151/MWh versus peak. SA's trough arrives slightly later: the 13:00–15:00 AEST window (03:00–05:00 UTC) settles near $120–$123/MWh, with savings of $139–$142/MWh versus the mid-morning SA peak of $262/MWh forecast at 23:00 AEST. VIC's overnight prices remain structurally higher than NSW and QLD, with the best window at 13:00–14:00 AEST around $124/MWh; a late-afternoon opportunity also emerges from 03:30–04:30 AEST tomorrow at $118/MWh as VIC predispatch prices plateau in the low $120s through the afternoon.

Tasmania offers the most stable and lowest price environment on the NEM today. Prices are forecast to hold in the $70–$79/MWh range for most of the day with the exception of a brief spike to $120/MWh at 18:30 AEST. The 14:00–16:00 AEST and 02:00–05:00 AEST windows both print below $72/MWh, making TAS the preferred region for continuous flexible load operation where site capability allows. The heating demand signal is the strongest in Tasmania (14.9°C deficit at 3.1°C) and SA (10.1°C deficit), so operators managing thermal processes in those regions should factor sustained background load into shift planning — trough windows will compress as heating demand builds toward the morning.

Concrete recommendation: schedule flexible loads in NSW and QLD to commence no later than