Load Advisor: Monday 22 June 2026

NEM-wide prices are elevated on a cold Tuesday morning with meaningful divergence across regions. Queensland sits at $121/MWh, NSW at $141/MWh, Victoria at $144/MWh, and Tasmania at $67/MWh, while South Australia is already at $250/MWh with predispatch signalling persistent stress throughout the day. The overnight to early-morning window is the clear load-shifting opportunity across most regions, but the depth of savings and the timing of peaks vary significantly by region.

Queensland offers the strongest absolute savings opportunity on the NEM today. Prices will fall to near-zero between 01:00–05:00 AEST (as low as $0.01/MWh at 13:00–14:00 UTC), presenting savings of up to $225/MWh versus peak. Flexible loads in QLD should target the 11:00–15:00 AEST window when prices sit at $0.01–$4/MWh. Prices will rise sharply through the morning, reaching $120–$225/MWh from 17:00 AEST onward, so loads must be shed before then. Note the near-zero price risk rating for some QLD intervals is flagged as high, reflecting volatility at the floor. In NSW, the prime window is 14:00–16:00 AEST at $43/MWh average, saving $437/MWh versus the morning peak. NSW predispatch is forecasting a sustained spike of $276–$480/MWh from 17:00–20:30 AEST — this is the primary avoidance window and loads must be offline before 16:30 AEST.

Victoria's best window runs 12:30–15:30 AEST at $76–$82/MWh, saving up to $221/MWh versus peak. Avoid 07:00–22:30 AEST broadly, where predispatch shows prices ranging from $155/MWh to $297/MWh, with the overnight shoulder from 23:00–01:30 AEST also elevated at $130–$297/MWh. Tasmania is the most stable region today with a low-volatility band of $79–$95/MWh from 10:30–15:30 AEST; the 10:30–11:30 AEST window at ~$79/MWh is the pick, with sporadic spikes to $160–$216/MWh at 06:00, 09:00, and 15:30 AEST to avoid. South Australia is in a category of its own — predispatch shows prices at $310–$900/MWh for virtually the entire day, with spikes to $875–$899/MWh from 16:30 AEST through the evening. SA operators should shed all deferrable load immediately and hold off through at least 04:00–05:00 AEST tomorrow; if load must run, the least-bad window is 07:00–08:00 AEST at $160–$198/MWh, though even that carries medium risk given SA's structural tightness today.

Concrete scheduling recommendation: QLD flexible loads target 11:00–15:00 AEST; NSW loads target 14:00–16:00 AEST and must be shed by 16:30 AEST; VIC loads target 12:30–15:30