Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 20 June 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $70.24/MWh with demand at 1,165.72 MW as of 06:30 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's history is pronounced: when demand was tracking in the 1,000–1,060 MW trough through the early morning hours (roughly 11:45–01:55 AEST), prices held at a near-flat $60.12–$60.22/MWh, suggesting a clear supply stack step in that range. As demand climbed through the pre-dawn ramp — crossing 1,060 MW around 14:15 AEST and pushing toward 1,080 MW by 14:20 AEST — price stepped up to the $70.24/MWh level and has largely remained anchored there. The current 1,165.72 MW demand level is well within the zone that keeps price at the $70.24 ceiling seen through today's trading, with only brief excursions to $61–$68/MWh when demand dipped or supply-side conditions shifted slightly.

Today's demand trajectory shows a clear winter evening escalation pattern. The daily trough registered around 1,004–1,020 MW between approximately 13:00–14:00 AEST, and demand has been rising steadily since, with the current 1,165.72 MW reflecting the early evening build. The current 5°C temperature and a heating demand index of 13 — with minimal wind (8.7 km/h) and no solar contribution — reinforces continued heating load through tonight. The price forecasts confirm this: the $70.24/MWh level holds through to 08:00 AEST, before stepping up sharply to a forecast peak of $129.28/MWh at the 09:30 AEST half-hour and $115.66/MWh at 08:30 AEST, signalling anticipated tight conditions through the Sunday morning demand peak.

The reserve position adds context to the elevated price outlook. AEMO's earlier Forecast LOR1 notice for Tasmania on 22 June has since been cancelled (Market Notice 144285), however a separate Forecast LOR1 remains active for 25 June (08:00–09:00 AEST, with a 50 MW reserve shortfall against a 580 MW requirement). That notice was not cancelled as of the latest data. The $129.28/MWh forecast spike at 09:30 AEST today likely reflects tightening supply-demand balance as Sunday morning demand builds while Basslink transfer capacity and local dispatch headroom are both constrained. Demand-side participants should note the lowest-cost load windows are forecast between 13:00–14:00 AEST (around $71/MWh) before prices lift again through the afternoon and evening.