Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 18 June 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at -$0.10/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,499 MW. This negative pricing is not an aberration — it has been the dominant state across much of today's trading, with prices negative or near zero for the majority of intervals since around 08:20 AEST. The only sustained positive pricing occurred during the morning ramp between approximately 07:00 and 11:30 AEST, peaking briefly at $36.86/MWh at 07:15 AEST before retreating as demand softened. Through the extended afternoon and early evening window — from roughly 14:30 AEST through to now — prices have held persistently negative, ranging between -$1.10/MWh and -$3.20/MWh, reflecting supply exceeding demand across the dispatch stack.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows wind at 3,465 MW and brown coal at 2,866 MW as the two dominant sources, with hydro contributing 60 MW, gas OCGT at 10 MW, and battery at 1 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the current temperature of 11.3°C, 99% cloud cover, and zero solar potential. Renewables are contributing 55.1% of generation at this interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.547 tCO2/MWh, improved from a session peak of approximately 0.603 tCO2/MWh reached during the morning peak when thermal plant was carrying higher load. The overnight range saw intensity fluctuate between 0.500 and 0.604 tCO2/MWh as wind output varied relative to brown coal dispatch. Wind potential in the current weather reading is modest at 12.5 on the index, and the Friday outlook shows average wind potential of 10.5 with 71% cloud cover — conditions that will limit any solar contribution but maintain wind as the primary variable renewable source through the day.

Predispatch forecasts signal a significant price step-up beginning tonight. From the current negative print, prices are forecast to rise to $21.98/MWh at 07:00 AEST, climbing through $25.13/MWh at 07:30 AEST, and reaching $30.88–$31.97/MWh in the 08:00–08:30 AEST window as the evening demand ramp begins. The more notable signal is the sustained elevated band forecast through the morning tomorrow: prices are projected to hold between $55 and $71.63/MWh from approximately 17:00 AEST tonight through to 04:00 AEST tomorrow (07:00–18:00 AEST Friday), with a peak of $71.63/MWh forecast at the 23:00 AEST interval. This is a materially different price profile from today's heavily negative or near-floor daytime trading, and reflects tighter supply-demand balance during the Friday morning peak. Prices are then forecast to ease back toward $10.50–$12.35/MWh from 02:30 AEST Saturday onward.

One active market notice is directly relevant to Victoria: a non-conformance was declared on unit YWPS4 (Yallourn W Power Station Unit 4) for a -44 MW deviation between 01:20 and 01:25 AEST today under constraint NC-V_YW