Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 18 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 5,499 MW — a level that has consistently produced at or near the floor price across recent intervals. The price-demand relationship across today's history is clear: negative prices dominate below roughly 5,500 MW, near-zero to low single digits from 5,500–6,200 MW, and $8–$36/MWh through the morning peak band of 6,600–7,145 MW seen around 07:00–09:30 AEST. The overnight period from 22:30 AEST last night through to the current interval has been characterised almost entirely by negative or sub-$1/MWh prices, with wind generating 3,466 MW at 06:00 AEST keeping supply well ahead of demand at these early-morning low-load conditions.

The day's demand profile shapes a pronounced price escalation from here. The morning commute ramp is already underway — demand lifted from a trough near 4,370 MW around 03:10 AEST and is now climbing. Forecasts point to the day's price peak between 07:30 AEST and 14:00 AEST (17:30–04:00 UTC), where the forward curve runs $48–$72/MWh. That band — $60.44/MWh at 07:00 AEST, $62.23/MWh at 08:00, peaking at $71.63/MWh by 12:00 AEST — reflects thermal plant clearing into demand that typically touches 6,500–7,100 MW on winter weekday mornings. Today is Friday, so the morning peak should be comparable to the 7,139 MW reached at 08:00 AEST on Thursday, though the weekend effect may soften the upper end slightly.

Afternoon prices ease sharply back toward $10–$13/MWh from 16:30 AEST onward, consistent with demand falling away as the working day ends — a pattern clearly evident in today's data where demand dropped to 4,370–4,500 MW through the 03:10–08:00 UTC window (13:10–18:00 AEST Thursday) with prices holding negative throughout. The absence of any solar contribution (0 MW at 06:00 AEST, cloud cover at 99%, max solar potential of 1 for today) means the midday demand trough that typically suppresses prices in summer will not materialise — thermal and wind plant carry the full daytime load, which supports the sustained elevated forward curve through noon. There is no VIC-specific reserve or constraint notice active that would materially alter this outlook, though the YWPS4 non-conformance event earlier this morning (01:20–01:25 AEST, -44 MW) was minor and resolved.

Traders should note the demand floor is moving: current 5,499 MW is already up around 1,100 MW from the overnight minimum, and the forward curve prices the next two hours at $22–$31/MWh as demand crosses the zone where thermal dispatch becomes price-setting. The $48–$72/MWh window from 06:30–14:00 AEST represents today's primary price risk period. Flexibility operators and demand-response participants with loads that can shift outside the 06:30–14:00 AEST window face a forward saving