Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 17 June 2026

The Victorian spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping off an extended run of negative pricing that has persisted since approximately 22:00 AEST last night. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices ran at $40–$49/MWh through the 15:30–17:45 AEST morning peak before collapsing as midday demand fell away, with the market spending the bulk of the afternoon and evening between -$2.50 and -$3.71/MWh. Total demand sits at 5,219 MW — well below the overnight peak of ~6,930 MW seen around 17:40–18:00 AEST — consistent with a typical winter overnight trough.

Wind is the dominant generation source at 3,560 MW, accounting for approximately 56% of local supply. Brown coal is dispatching 2,658 MW (roughly 42%), with gas OCGT contributing 70 MW, hydro 32 MW, and battery a minimal 3 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration stands at 56.85% and carbon intensity sits at 0.5201 tCO2/MWh — a material improvement from the 0.84 tCO2/MWh recorded during the 04:30–05:00 AEST period when wind output was lower and thermal plant was carrying a larger share of the load. The carbon intensity trend across the past 24 hours tracks inversely with wind generation, ranging from a high of 0.84 tCO2/MWh to the current 0.52 tCO2/MWh.

Predispatch forecasts signal that negative or near-zero prices will continue through to approximately 08:00 AEST (21:00–22:00 UTC), before prices step up sharply to $31–$37/MWh across the 08:00–10:30 AEST window as morning demand builds. Prices are then forecast to ease through the middle of the day — dropping back toward $18–$28/MWh between 23:00 and 01:00 UTC (09:00–11:00 AEST) — before returning to negative territory from approximately 02:00–04:00 AEST tomorrow morning, reaching as low as -$3.96/MWh by 04:00 AEST. The weather outlook supports this pattern: 98% cloud cover and 24.6 km/h winds currently, with tomorrow's forecast showing reduced wind potential (avg 13.6) and continued full cloud cover, which will keep solar output negligible for a second consecutive day.

One active market notice is directly relevant to Victoria: AEMO issued a non-conformance for YWPS4 (Yallourn Power Station Unit 4) covering the period 01:20–01:25 AEST today (18 June), with a -44 MW deviation against constraint NC-V_YWPS4 (Notice 144275). The duration was brief and the unit appears to have returned to compliant operation, but traders with positions around Yallourn dispatch should confirm current unit status. The MT PASA reserve notice published 16 June identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM, and the earlier SA LOR1 forecast for 17 June has been cancelled, leaving no outstanding reserve adequacy concerns affecting VIC1 interconnector flows at