Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 17 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,219 MW — a significant retreat from the overnight peak of 6,928 MW recorded around 18:00 AEST. The negative price reflects surplus supply conditions at this early morning trough, with wind generation running at 3,560 MW against total demand that has dropped roughly 1,700 MW from its daily high. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours has been consistent: demand above ~6,500 MW pushed prices into the $22–$55/MWh range during the evening peak, while demand below ~5,500 MW has repeatedly produced near-zero or negative outcomes. The sensitivity band is clear — approximately every 500 MW step down from the 6,500 MW threshold correlates with a price collapse toward the floor.

Demand is now rising from its overnight trough and the forecast trajectory points to the first material price recovery around 08:00 AEST, with forecast prices lifting to $31–$34/MWh as the morning ramp builds. The 06:00–10:00 AEST window is forecast to hold prices in the $30–$34/MWh range, consistent with demand climbing back toward the 6,500–6,900 MW band seen during this morning's equivalent period on Wednesday. A YWPS4 non-conformance notice (unit: Yallourn, 18 June 01:20–01:25 AEST, -44 MW) is the only VIC-relevant market notice in play; at 44 MW the dispatch impact is negligible relative to current demand scale.

The afternoon and early evening price outlook splits into two distinct regimes. Midday demand is forecast to sit in the 5,000–5,400 MW range — consistent with the sustained negative prices (-$2 to -$4/MWh) that persisted from 22:00 to 04:30 AEST today as supply outran load. Forecasts show prices recovering to $18–$28/MWh through the 22:00–01:00 AEST window as evening demand climbs, before collapsing again to near-zero and negative through the 11:00–04:00 AEST period tomorrow. Temperature is a limiting factor: today's maximum is forecast at 16.4°C with 98% cloud cover and no solar contribution, meaning the demand profile is driven entirely by heating load and the standard commercial/industrial cycle rather than any weather-driven volatility. Wind potential is moderate at 23.3 km/h currently but forecast to ease significantly over coming days, which will shift the supply balance and support firmer prices from Saturday onwards.