Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 16 June 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $0/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, capping a sustained run of negative and near-zero prices that began around 02:00 AEST and persisted through the overnight and early morning period. That negative price band — troughing at -$2.10/MWh across several intervals — reflects a familiar winter wind pattern: strong overnight generation pushing supply well above demand. Total demand sits at 5,363 MW at the current interval, well below the 7,200 MW peak recorded during this morning's earlier trading session (17:50–18:20 AEST equivalent in prior intervals). The 24-hour price profile shows a clear morning peak structure, with spot prices ranging from $60–$83/MWh between 17:00 and 19:30 AEST, before collapsing sharply as demand fell away through the evening. Grid stress is scored at 72.8, reflecting the volatility baked into that peak-to-trough swing rather than any current supply concern.
Wind is the dominant generation source at 3,134 MW, with brown coal contributing 3,259 MW — the two fuels running almost neck and neck and together accounting for virtually all dispatched energy. Gas OCGT is providing just 9 MW, hydro 1.83 MW, and battery output is negligible at 0.02 MW. Solar is at zero, consistent with winter overnight conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 48.97% at the current interval, a marked improvement from the 33–35% range recorded during this morning's peak demand window (05:00–07:00 AEST) when wind output was lower relative to a much higher load. Carbon intensity is 0.6218 tCO2/MWh — down from a session high of 0.8070 tCO2/MWh recorded at 21:00 AEST — tracking inversely with the improving wind contribution through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price recovery through the next few hours. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $30.99/MWh, rising to a peak of $39.12/MWh at 09:00 AEST as the morning demand ramp gets underway. Prices are then expected to ease through the morning, with the $10.50/MWh floor level sustained across the overnight period from 09:30 AEST through to 17:00 AEST tomorrow. Notably, the predispatch outlook flags a return to negative prices from 23:00 AEST tomorrow, bottoming at -$12.75/MWh at the 02:30 AEST interval — signalling another strong overnight wind event is anticipated. The MTPASA reserve notice published this morning confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are currently identified for Victoria. The active inter-regional transfer notice relating to the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage in VIC (invoked 10 June) remains on record; traders should monitor NOS for its resolution status, as the associated constraint set F-I_ML_APD_LOAD carries implications for T-V-MNSP1 flow limits. No VIC-specific non-conformance events are active.
Today's weather picture — 15.1°C, 31% cloud cover, 17.9 km/h winds and zero solar potential — is consistent with the observed generation mix. Tomorrow's outlook (max 17