Load Advisor: Tuesday 16 June 2026

VIC and SA present the standout load shifting opportunity across the NEM today. VIC prices are currently sitting at $0/MWh and will drop into negative territory from 13:00 AEST, bottoming at -$12.75/MWh at 16:30 AEST before holding negative through to at least 19:00 AEST. SA mirrors this pattern, with prices forecast to go negative from 12:30 AEST and sustain at approximately -$2 to -$3/MWh through to 19:00 AEST — representing savings of up to $45/MWh versus the current dispatch price. Flexible loads in these two regions should be scheduled to run through the 13:00–19:00 AEST window, with the VIC 16:30 AEST slot offering the deepest discount NEM-wide today.

NSW and QLD offer a clear overnight trough but no negative pricing. NSW prices will fall from the current $80.10/MWh to $42.01/MWh from 12:30 AEST overnight, holding that floor through 14:30–15:30 AEST before lifting back above $76/MWh at the morning peak. The optimal NSW window is 11:00–15:30 AEST overnight (01:00–05:30 AEST), where savings of up to $45.37/MWh are achievable. QLD follows a similar overnight profile, with prices dropping to $38.67/MWh at 13:00 AEST overnight (03:00 AEST) — savings of $45.83/MWh — before rebounding sharply above $76/MWh from 16:00 AEST. Both regions then face sustained daytime prices of $78–$85/MWh through business hours, which is the primary window to avoid for any deferrable load.

Tasmania is the least attractive region for shifting today. Prices sit at $59/MWh currently and forecasts show no period below $45.89/MWh (16:30 AEST), with much of the day in the $60–$79/MWh range. The best TAS window is 16:30 AEST at $45.89/MWh, delivering a $33.15/MWh saving — useful but marginal compared to the mainland. Notably, TAS overnight prices spike into the high $70s, which is counterintuitive relative to the other regions and warrants caution for any overnight scheduling assumptions.

Concrete recommendation: prioritise scheduling flexible loads in VIC between 13:00 and 19:00 AEST, with SA as a near-equivalent option across the same window. NSW and QLD operators should target the 01:00–05:30 AEST overnight window and avoid committing load during the 06:00–17:00 AEST business day when both regions price above $76/MWh. The universal avoid window NEM-wide is QLD and NSW from 07:00 to 12:00 AEST, where predispatch forecasts consistently show $80–$85/MWh. WA (SWIS) is showing $137.08/MWh at the current interval — no load shifting opportunity is indicated there for today.