Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 16 June 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 5,363 MW — a sharp contrast to the morning peak that saw demand push above 7,200 MW between 07:50 and 08:30 AEST, where prices held in the $75–$83/MWh range. The demand-price relationship today has been textbook: prices tracked demand closely through the morning ramp, climbing from sub-$1/MWh at 05:00 AEST (5,363 MW) to a session high of $83.39/MWh at 08:25 AEST (7,169 MW) before easing as demand retreated through the business day. The midday trough bottomed around 4,270–4,320 MW from roughly 03:00–04:30 AEST, with prices running negative — as low as -$2.10/MWh — as generation exceeded grid requirements. Demand is now climbing again from that afternoon floor, with the current 5,363 MW reading consistent with the early evening ramp phase.
The forecast trajectory points to a significant price step-up ahead. AEMO's dispatch forecasts price rising to $31.00/MWh by 07:00 AEST, $36.71/MWh by 07:30 AEST, and peaking around $39.12/MWh at 08:00 AEST as the Wednesday morning peak demand wave builds. This mirrors the pattern observed through today's earlier peak, where each 500–700 MW increment in demand above the 6,500 MW threshold translated to sustained prices in the $60–$80/MWh band. The overnight corridor from 09:30–13:00 AEST is forecast to hold at $10.50/MWh, consistent with moderate overnight demand in the 5,500–6,200 MW range where the marginal stack is relatively flat.
Wind is currently generating 3,134 MW against brown coal at 3,259 MW, with solar at zero for the evening period. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6218 tCO₂/MWh with renewables at 48.97%. Tomorrow's outlook shifts the supply mix picture materially: average wind potential drops to 5.5 (from today's stronger conditions) under 95% cloud cover with a maximum temperature of just 17.3°C — a mild day that will restrain heating demand at the margin. That combination of lower wind output and moderate demand suggests tomorrow's morning peak prices, forecast at $36–$38/MWh, may prove conservative if wind underperforms. Conversely, the afternoon window from 23:00–04:00 AEST tomorrow is forecast to run deeply negative (to -$12.75/MWh at 02:30 AEST), creating a clear signal for flexible industrial loads and battery charging strategies.