Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 16 June 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $59/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,124 MW, both rising steadily from the session low of around 949 MW and sub-$1/MWh prices recorded between 03:45–04:40 AEST. That near-zero price episode reflects a period of pronounced oversupply relative to demand — the 170 MW gap between minimum demand and current levels has already driven prices from effectively zero back toward the $55–60/MWh range as the morning load builds. The price-to-demand relationship across today's data is tight: demand crossing above roughly 1,280 MW consistently triggered prices into the $68–77/MWh band, as seen during the 07:00–09:00 AEST window when demand peaked at 1,391 MW and the RRP held at $76–77/MWh.
The demand trajectory from here is the key price driver. Forecasts point to prices climbing back through $60–70/MWh within the next two trading intervals as demand continues its morning ascent, with the curve accelerating toward a $76–79/MWh band between 09:00 and 11:00 AEST — consistent with the winter morning peak pattern already demonstrated in today's data. The overnight peak of 1,391 MW at 07:45–08:00 AEST produced the session high of $77.28/MWh, and the forecast implies a similar or slightly higher demand peak in the equivalent window this morning, with prices forecast to reach $77.28–77.66/MWh around 06:00–08:00 AEST local time tomorrow. At 9.7°C and 100% cloud cover with a heating demand index of 8.3, cold-weather residential and commercial load is providing a firm demand floor with no solar offset available to moderate pricing pressure.
The midday trough is well-defined in the forecast: prices ease to $60/MWh through the 11:00–12:30 AEST period as demand retreats from its morning peak, before softening further to $56–57/MWh across the 13:00–15:30 AEST window. The afternoon low of $45.89/MWh is forecast at 16:30 AEST — mirroring the structure seen today when demand bottomed near 950 MW and prices collapsed — before recovering to the low-$50s/MWh through the early evening. Generation at this interval is 920 MW hydro and 144 MW wind against 1,125 MW demand, with gas OCGT at zero, indicating hydro dispatch is tracking demand closely and the market is not yet drawing on peaking capacity.