Commodity Demand — SA1: Sunday 14 June 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $70.96/MWh with demand at 1,463 MW as of 06:30 AEST, continuing a rising trend through the morning that mirrors the typical winter weekday ramp. The price-demand relationship across today's history is textbook: demand troughed near 600 MW in the early hours of this morning (around 13:00–14:00 AEST overnight) when prices were consistently negative, bottoming at -$12.50/MWh. As demand climbed through the pre-dawn period and accelerated after 16:30 AEST, prices snapped from negative territory to the $42–$98/MWh range, with the sharpest sensitivity evident between 16:30 and 18:00 AEST when demand crossed 1,000 MW — a clear inflection point where dispatchable capacity pricing power asserted itself. The morning peak reached 1,912 MW at approximately 19:00 AEST, with prices holding in the $72–$98/MWh band throughout that period.
The generation mix at 06:20 AEST shows wind producing 1,449 MW, gas OCGT at 191 MW, gas CCGT at 148 MW, and battery dispatch of 7 MW, with solar contributing zero in these winter morning conditions. Wind is carrying the dominant load-following role at present demand levels, which is consistent with the carbon intensity of 0.1098 tCO2/MWh and 81% renewable penetration recorded at the latest interval. The current $70.96/MWh price reflects gas-fired capacity setting the marginal price as wind alone is insufficient to fully cover the 1,463 MW load — a dynamic that will intensify as demand continues rising through the morning peak.
The forecast trajectory signals further upward price pressure in the near term. Prices are forecast at $73.66/MWh for 07:00 AEST, rising to $83.30/MWh by 07:30 AEST and reaching a local peak of $98.00/MWh at 09:00 AEST, consistent with the morning commercial and industrial load peak typical of a Monday. The overnight low-demand window that produced sustained negative and near-zero pricing is well behind us. Traders should note that the active LOR1 reserve notice for SA on 17 June (08:00–09:30 AEST and 16:30–22:30 AEST) indicates tight capacity margins are a live concern this week, particularly during the afternoon and evening peaks when minimum reserve availability was forecast at just 299–301 MW against a 320 MW requirement — a factor that could amplify price volatility across Tuesday and Wednesday if the reserve position does not improve.
The afternoon outlook provides a stark contrast to the morning. Prices are forecast to collapse from $63/MWh at 21:00 AEST to $15.74/MWh by 21:30 AEST and reach negative territory from 00:30 AEST Tuesday onward, sustained through 04:00 AEST Tuesday at -$2 to -$2.94/MWh. This intraday price arc — roughly $100 of spread between the 09:00 AEST peak and the overnight trough — reflects the structural demand curve of a winter day in SA: high morning load driven by heating demand (currently 6.1 units of heating load at 11.9°C), a gradual afternoon