Commodity Demand — SA1: Tuesday 28 July 2026
South Australian demand sits at 1,517 MW as of 6:30pm AEST, with spot price at $92.44/MWh — a sharp reversal from the negative and near-zero pricing that dominated overnight and midday trade. Demand has been climbing steadily since the 6:00-7:00pm trough near 1,340-1,400 MW, and the price response is immediate: the 8:10-9:00pm window earlier today saw demand punch through 2,270 MW and prices spike to $94-101/MWh repeatedly, confirming SA's price curve is highly convex once demand pushes past ~2,000 MW. Through the low-demand overnight periods (1,300-1,800 MW between midnight and 6am), prices sat persistently negative, down to -$100/MWh, as wind generation (currently 808 MW) and minimal underlying load left the region oversupplied.
The forecast trajectory into this evening is the key story for traders. AEMO's dispatch forecasts show price escalating sharply from $28/MWh at 9pm to $130/MWh by 10pm, $198/MWh by 11pm, and spiking to $820-875/MWh across the 12:30am-2:00am window tomorrow morning — an unusual overnight peak that reflects tightening reserve margins rather than typical evening demand peak dynamics. This pattern continues into tomorrow's morning and afternoon blocks, with forecast prices holding in the $170-300/MWh band through most of the day and spiking again to $820/MWh around 4:30-5:30am and $591/MWh either side of that window.
Demand-side risk factors are material today. AEMO has an active LOR1 (Lack of Reserve Level 1) notice for SA covering 7am-12pm and 5pm-10:30pm tomorrow (29 July), with forecast capacity reserve of 386 MW against available capacity of only 357 MW in the morning block, and 400 MW required versus 379 MW available in the evening block. This reserve shortfall aligns directly with the forecast price spikes and explains the elevated risk ratings on load-shifting opportunities — the load window tool flags the 9pm-10pm block tonight as "high risk" despite a $65/MWh average price, given the LOR1 exposure. Current generation mix shows wind at 808 MW and gas (OCGT + CCGT) contributing 505 MW combined, with carbon intensity rising to 0.2207 tCO2/MWh as renewable share has fallen to 61.5% from the 95%+ levels seen overnight — consistent with wind easing off and gas ramping to cover the evening demand climb.
Trading desks should treat the overnight 29 July window (00:30-02:00 AEST) as the highest-risk period today, with forecast prices at $820-875/MWh against a genuine reserve shortfall, not just a demand-driven peak. Load-shifting into the 6:30-8:30am block tomorrow (forecast $146-156/MWh) offers the best risk-adjusted saving versus the overnight spike.