Commodity Demand — SA1: Saturday 13 June 2026

South Australia sits at $58.61/MWh with demand at 1,309 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price level is consistent with the evening wind-down pattern visible across the past several hours — demand peaked near 1,790 MW during the 18:00–19:00 AEST window and prices ran in the $70–$75/MWh range through that period, reflecting the tighter supply-demand balance during the morning and daytime hours. The current demand trough, combined with 789 MW of wind and 452 MW of combined gas generation, is keeping prices anchored in the high-$50s. With 7.8°C on the ground, zero solar potential, and a heating demand index of 10.2, today's load profile is driven entirely by residential and commercial heating — there is no solar suppression of daytime demand to factor in.

The forecast trajectory is the key signal for today. Prices are expected to hold in the $60–$74/MWh range through the 07:00–09:30 AEST window as demand climbs through the morning peak, before strengthening further into the 08:30–11:30 AEST period where forecasts sit at $77–$85/MWh — the highest sustained band in the outlook. This aligns with a typical winter Sunday profile: demand building through mid-morning as heating loads accumulate, with no rooftop solar to offset consumption. The afternoon period (14:00–16:00 AEST) eases back toward $53–$65/MWh as demand softens mid-afternoon, before the evening taper holds prices in the $49–$52/MWh range from 17:00 AEST onward.

The overnight price structure is the sharpest feature of today's outlook. Forecasts drop to $9.10/MWh at 10:30 AEST tonight, turn negative from 11:00 AEST through to approximately 16:00 AEST tomorrow morning, with a trough of -$4.00/MWh at 13:00 AEST tomorrow. This reproduces the pattern visible in the historical data, where prices ran at the market floor (-$3 to -$0.10/MWh) from approximately 06:30–12:00 AEST as overnight wind generation outpaced low nocturnal demand. Flexible loads and battery operators should note this window — six consecutive half-hours at or below zero are forecast between 11:00 AEST and 16:00 AEST tonight. The overnight LOR1 notice for SA on 17 June (08:00–09:30 and 16:30–22:30 AEST) is not a factor today but is worth monitoring as the week progresses given the reserve margins cited were already tight at time of issue before being cancelled.

Price sensitivity to demand is relatively pronounced in SA given its islanded characteristics and limited interconnector headroom under certain constraint conditions. The 480 MW swing from the overnight trough (~1,265 MW) to the daytime peak (~1,790 MW) seen over the past 24 hours corresponded to a price move from -$3/MWh to +$75/MWh — roughly a $78/MWh range on a ~38% demand increase. Today's Sunday profile will likely produce a shallower peak, with max demand expected in the 1,650–1,750 MW range given the weekend suppression of commercial load, which is consistent