Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 4 June 2026

Queensland spot sits at $80.83/MWh with demand at 6,830 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the characteristic winter morning ramp. Today's demand trajectory follows a well-defined pattern: from a trough near 3,983 MW around 12:35 AEST (overnight), demand has climbed steadily through the morning peak, touching 7,767 MW at 17:50 AEST before easing back. That 7,767 MW peak coincided with prices in the $85–$87/MWh range — tight but orderly, with no price spikes into high four or five figures. Price sensitivity to demand is clear in the data: every 1,000 MW added to the morning ramp from ~06:00 to ~08:00 AEST corresponded to a roughly $20–$30/MWh lift in the spot price, while the overnight low-demand period produced repeated negative or near-zero prices as supply outpaced load.

Demand is now in a gradual evening ramp from the ~5,400 MW midday-to-afternoon trough toward a forecast second evening peak. The most recent AEMO pre-dispatch forecasts for 07:00–07:30 AEST target prices of $80–$82/MWh, consistent with demand holding in the upper-6,000 to lower-7,000 MW range as the evening heating load builds. At the current temperature of 12.9°C with a heating demand index of 5.1, the evening ramp is expected to be demand-driven rather than weather-extreme — no stress event is anticipated. The grid stress score of 81.3 reflects the firm demand level rather than any supply constraint, and the absence of any QLD-specific contingency notice today supports an orderly market through the peak.

The overnight demand trough — which bottomed near 3,983–4,088 MW between roughly 12:30–13:00 AEST — is where today's price action was most instructive. Prices hit −$68.68/MWh at 13:40 AEST and spent extended periods below zero from approximately 11:30 AEST through to 14:00 AEST, driven by supply surplus against a shallow load floor. Demand then lifted by over 3,700 MW through to the morning peak, and prices responded proportionally. For the remainder of today, load windows indicate the next low-price opportunity arrives around 09:00–10:00 AEST (UTC+10 Friday morning, ~$6–$7/MWh forecast), after which demand is expected to ramp into a Friday evening peak. Forecast prices for that second peak window sit in the $76–$82/MWh range, broadly in line with today's morning peak outturn — no material upside surprise is flagged in pre-dispatch.