Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 3 June 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $87.22/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,145 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 944 MW recorded between 15:00–17:30 AEST. The demand trajectory today has been textbook winter: a pre-dawn ramp from roughly 995 MW at 03:15 AEST through the morning peak of 1,288 MW at 08:00 AEST, before easing to midday lows near 943 MW, then climbing again through the evening. The price response to this demand curve has been notably compressed — the shift from ~944 MW to ~1,288 MW moved the spot price only from the $76.89–$77/MWh band to $87.22–$87.24/MWh, a spread of roughly $10/MWh across a 344 MW demand swing, pointing to a well-supplied dispatch stack with limited marginal cost escalation at current demand levels.
The evening demand rebuild is now clearly underway. From the 18:00 AEST trough near 949 MW, demand rises steadily to 1,057 MW by 20:00 AEST and 1,145 MW at the latest read — a 196 MW lift in 30 minutes. Prices have responded in step, moving from the $76.89–$77/MWh floor to $87.22/MWh as demand cleared the threshold where the next dispatch tranche prices in. Two brief spikes to $96.26–$103.51/MWh appeared at 06:10 AEST and 21:05–21:10 AEST as demand surged through 1,125–1,190 MW, but these were single-interval events, suggesting marginal capacity is available but thin at those levels.
Forward forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) are split between $80.20/MWh and $87.22–$87.24/MWh across different forecast runs, indicating dispatch-model uncertainty about whether demand settles in the lower or upper dispatch band as tonight's residential heating load peaks. Current temperature in Hobart is 11°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7, consistent with sustained evening load around 1,150–1,250 MW. If demand tracks toward the 1,270–1,290 MW range seen this morning, the $87.22/MWh band is the more likely outcome; a softer climb keeps it closer to $80.20/MWh. Generation is currently 1,126.71 MW hydro and 66.38 MW wind, with gas OCGT at zero, confirming that the hydro stack is absorbing the evening ramp without needing peaking backup at this stage.