Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 3 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $80.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,831 MW, tracking the region's typical winter evening ramp. Today's price-demand relationship has been textbook: the morning peak between 17:30 and 19:30 AEST saw demand push through 7,500–7,633 MW with prices holding firmly in the $121–$166/MWh range, hitting an intraday high of $165.53/MWh at 17:20 AEST when demand reached 7,479 MW. As demand retreated through the afternoon into the early evening trough — bottoming near 3,994 MW around 13:00 AEST — spot prices swung sharply negative, touching -$25.01/MWh in several intervals between 12:05 and 12:40 AEST. That 3,600+ MW swing in demand across the day produced a price range exceeding $190/MWh, illustrating the steep marginal cost curve that characterises Queensland's winter dispatch stack.

Demand is now climbing again on the evening ramp, rising from a post-morning trough of around 5,420 MW at 03:00 AEST to the current 6,831 MW, with prices re-entering the $80–$92/MWh band. Forecast data for the 07:00–07:30 AEST intervals points to $90.64–$90.73/MWh, consistent with continued evening demand build. The current generation mix — 4,674 MW black coal, 648 MW wind, 501 MW battery, 357 MW gas OCGT, 301 MW hydro, and negligible solar at 0.2 MW — reflects a post-sunset profile with wind providing 22% of renewables in the 22% renewable share. Battery dispatch at 501 MW is absorbing the ramp rather than suppressing it, suggesting storage is operating in discharge mode to support the evening peak transition.

The demand trajectory into the 07:30–09:00 AEST window is the key price driver to watch. If demand pushes back through 7,000–7,200 MW as forecast patterns from earlier this morning suggest is plausible, prices are likely to test the $90–$110/MWh range again before the overnight demand collapse restores negative or near-zero pricing from roughly 10:00 AEST onwards. Load windows confirm overnight prices are forecast well below $40/MWh from 09:00 AEST, with several intervals projected negative through to 14:30 AEST — consistent with the daytime pattern observed today. Flexible industrial loads with the ability to shift to the 09:00–14:30 AEST window face a substantial spread relative to the current evening interval.