Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 2 June 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $80.20/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,081 MW — up from a session trough of around 870 MW through the early-to-mid afternoon. The demand trajectory over the past 90 minutes tells the key story: from the daily low of approximately 870 MW at 15:30–16:00 AEST, demand is now rising sharply as the evening heating load builds, with the 8.8°C current temperature and a heating demand index of 9.2 driving residential consumption. The price response to this demand recovery has been measured but clear — prices dipped to a session low of $74.65/MWh when demand was in the 870–910 MW range during the 18:30–18:55 AEST window, then stepped back to the $76.89–$80.20/MWh band as demand crossed back above 1,000 MW from 19:30 AEST onwards.

The demand-price relationship across today's data reveals a relatively tight pricing band with two distinct regimes. Below approximately 1,100 MW — the afternoon trough period — prices settle in the $74.65–$80.20/MWh range with periodic dips into the low-to-mid $70s. Above 1,150 MW, which characterised the overnight and morning peak, prices firmed to $87.22–$95.24/MWh, with a brief spike to $112.23/MWh at 11:10 AEST (11:10 UTC+10) when demand was around 1,182 MW. Today's demand peak reached approximately 1,262 MW at 08:20 AEST at $87.22/MWh, consistent with the morning heating load across the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. Price sensitivity to demand increments is therefore most acute in the 1,100–1,200 MW band, where the market steps from the floor (~$80/MWh) to the $87/MWh price level.

Forecasts for the next trading intervals (target 07:00 AEST / 21:00 UTC) are coalescing around $80.20/MWh, with the subsequent 07:30 AEST interval showing mixed signals between $80.20/MWh and $86.74–$87.24/MWh across earlier forecast runs. This divergence reflects uncertainty around whether rising evening demand — currently tracking upward at roughly 30–40 MW per 5-minute interval — will breach the 1,150 MW threshold that has consistently triggered the $87/MWh pricing regime today. Given the 100% cloud cover, 8.8°C temperature, and a heating demand score of 9.2, demand is on a credible path to reach 1,150–1,200 MW by 08:00–09:00 AEST, which points to the $87/MWh band reasserting itself into the early evening peak.

Generation is currently 786.92 MW from hydro and 40.52 MW from wind, with gas OCGT at zero output. The OCGT sitting idle suggests the current demand level is comfortably within hydro's dispatch range; the key watch is whether continued demand growth through the 21:00–23:00 AEST window forces additional hydro dispatch or triggers gas OCGT entry, which would represent a supply-side cost signal that could