Regional Outlook — NSW1: Sunday 31 May 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $79/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 8,515 MW and climbing. That price level reflects a sharp reversal from the overnight trough — the region recorded multiple zero and negative price intervals between 11:00 PM and 06:00 AEST as overnight demand fell below 5,500 MW, bottoming near -$2/MWh around 01:05–02:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile has been characterised by a steep morning ramp, with prices lifting from near-zero to above $60/MWh in the 06:00 AEST half-hour and briefly touching $90.95/MWh at 04:25 AEST. Black coal is providing the dominant share of generation at 5,604 MW, followed by wind at 967 MW, hydro at 764 MW, solar at 100 MW, and battery discharge at 57 MW. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) sits at zero. Renewables collectively contribute 25.2% of the generation mix at the current interval, a notable step down from the overnight peak of approximately 56% reached around 01:00–02:30 AEST when demand was low and wind output sustained.

Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.6583 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of approximately 0.38 tCO2/MWh recorded around 01:00–03:30 AEST. The pattern is consistent with classic winter morning dynamics: as black coal ramps to meet rising heating-driven demand and solar remains limited by the short June day, the carbon intensity climbs. Today's weather supports limited solar output — cloud cover is just 1% at present, but solar potential is rated at zero given it is pre-dawn, with a daily average solar potential of 19.3 forecast for the day ahead. Wind potential is modest at 7.8 currently, consistent with the 967 MW wind output visible in the generation mix.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) trading period are converging around $98/MWh, with the most recent run at 06:01 AEST printing $98.05/MWh. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) period is forecast at $79/MWh, suggesting price pressure intensifies further into the morning peak. Earlier pre-dispatch runs for the 07:30 AEST interval had ranged as high as $124.20/MWh from the 12:32 AEST overnight run, indicating the market has partially softened expectations but still sees elevated pricing as demand peaks. Traders should expect continued upward pressure through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window as residential heating and commercial load builds toward the mid-morning plateau, which the price history shows sustained above $75/MWh for several hours.

The most relevant active market notice for NSW is the cancellation of a direction to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 (Market Notice 144172), effective from 23:15 AEST. That direction, which had been in place for system security purposes, is now cancelled, meaning the unit is no longer operating under AEMO instruction. Separately, two prior non-conformance notices name NSW units — NESBESS1 (the Neoen Big Battery) on 29 May for a -101 MW deviation, and BW