Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 21 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $119.97/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,183 MW and climbing into the morning ramp. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices tracked a clear diurnal pattern: overnight lows dipped to the low-to-mid $60s/MWh around 02:00–04:00 AEST, a pronounced morning peak pushed into the $160–$194/MWh range between 16:00–18:00 AEST, before easing back through the afternoon and early evening trough (low $80–$90s/MWh) and now firming again as the evening ramp builds. The 24-hour simple average across the history sits in the $105–$110/MWh range, placing the current price modestly above that mid-point and consistent with early evening demand escalation.

The generation mix as of 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 4,612 MW, with gas (OCGT) contributing 558 MW, wind 571 MW, battery storage 184 MW, hydro 0.4 MW, and solar negligible at 0.02 MW. Total registered output is approximately 5,925 MW against metered demand of 6,183 MW, with the balance covered by interstate imports. Renewable penetration stands at 12.74%, reflecting the absence of solar at this hour and modest wind output — well below the mid-morning peak of around 21–22% recorded earlier today when wind was stronger. The current mix is consistent with a typical winter overnight-to-morning transition; solar will remain a marginal contributor today given 100% cloud cover and a forecast maximum of just 15°C with minimal solar potential through the day.

Carbon intensity sits at 1.011 tCO2/MWh, up from a daily low of around 0.894 tCO2/MWh recorded during the 07:25–08:30 AEST window when renewable penetration was at its highest. Intensity spiked to 1.103 tCO2/MWh during the 13:00–14:00 AEST period when renewable share dropped to approximately 4.6–5%, consistent with wind generation being at its softest point of the day while gas peakers stepped in to support load. The current reading reflects brown coal running at baseload levels with moderate wind support.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) target are converging around $110.50/MWh, down from earlier predispatch estimates that ranged as high as $284/MWh for the 07:30 AEST window — those outliers have since been revised sharply lower to approximately $110–$125/MWh range, signalling the market is not anticipating a severe evening price spike tonight. The most relevant active notice for Victoria is the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer outage (Market Notice 144122), which constrains inter-regional transfer capability and has constraint set V-SMTX_F_R invoked on interconnectors including VIC1–NSW1 and V-SA; the outage is scheduled until 17:00 AEST today. Traders should monitor interconnector headroom through the morning as this constraint limits Victoria's ability to import from NSW during any demand peaks. The MT PASA notice from 19 May confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are forecast across the