Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 19 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $55.68/MWh at 06:25 AEST with total demand at 5,424 MW — notably softer than the overnight evening peak, which ran from $74/MWh up to $113.63/MWh between 07:25–08:40 AEST (UTC+10). The 24-hour price profile shows a pronounced trough through the early morning hours, with multiple intervals touching negative territory between 14:10 and 16:00 AEST as supply outpaced demand, bottoming at -$12.10/MWh at 15:15 AEST. Prices then recovered through the morning ramp as demand climbed toward the 7,100–7,200 MW range around 18:00–18:10 AEST before easing back. The current $55.68/MWh sits well below the evening peak average of roughly $85–95/MWh but is tracking in line with the mid-morning settling range of $55–65/MWh seen across 20:10–21:10 AEST yesterday.

The current generation mix (06:00 AEST trading interval) is dominated by brown coal at 4,403.81 MW, with wind contributing 1,689.05 MW and battery dispatch at 215.89 MW. Hydro is negligible at 0.42 MW, and both solar and gas (OCGT and CCGT) are contributing zero — solar output at zero is consistent with the pre-dawn interval and 100% cloud cover at 10.4°C. Wind is supplying approximately 27% of total generation in this interval. The renewable share (wind + hydro + battery) sits at around 30.2% per the latest carbon intensity record, which also registers grid intensity at 0.8516 tCO2/MWh. That is a material improvement from the 16:30–17:30 AEST window where intensity peaked at 0.9172 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration as low as 24.8% as wind softened and demand was elevated. The overnight low-intensity window ran from 13:30–14:30 AEST, where wind output lifted renewable share above 45% and intensity fell to 0.6268 tCO2/MWh — the day's best reading.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are clustering at $74.49/MWh in the most recent run, up sharply from the $58–59/MWh forecasts issued around 05:00–05:30 AEST. This upward revision aligns with demand building through the morning ramp — today's forecast high is 16.1°C with heating demand elevated and full cloud cover suppressing solar through at least the early morning. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) is forecast at $80.79/MWh in the latest run, though earlier predispatch runs had this window as high as $110.50/MWh, indicating the market has progressively revised down as wind output holds firm. Flexible load operators should note load window signals pointing to very low-cost intervals from 09:00–13:30 AEST (00:00–04:30 UTC) with forecast prices ranging $1–$11/MWh, consistent with the pattern seen in the overnight hours.

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