Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 20 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at **$128.72/MWh** at 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough where prices repeatedly printed between $1–$20/MWh during the 11:00–15:00 AEST window. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: ultra-low prices through the early-to-mid morning hours gave way to a sustained elevation above $110/MWh once the morning demand ramp commenced around 16:00 AEST, with the market now tracking near the top of that elevated band as demand climbs through 5,774 MW and rising. The intraday high reached $164.19/MWh at 16:00 AEST, and current prices are consolidating in the $120–$130/MWh range as the evening peak builds.

The generation mix is dominated by brown coal at **4,385 MW**, providing the baseload foundation of the dispatch stack. Gas OCGT sits at **545 MW**, called on to support the evening ramp. Battery storage is discharging at **101.57 MW**, consistent with peak-period deployment. Wind contributes **63.19 MW** and hydro **46.23 MW**, while solar output is zero given the time of day. Total renewable penetration stands at just **4.1%** — a marked collapse from overnight levels where wind pushed renewables above 45% during the 13:30–14:30 AEST window. This evening mix is almost entirely thermal and storage, reflecting both the absence of solar and low wind conditions; Melbourne sits at 9.8°C with wind speed at 3.8 km/h and 45% cloud cover.

Carbon intensity is currently **1.1095 tCO2/MWh**, near the top of today's range. The intensity deteriorated steadily from a morning low of approximately 0.65 tCO2/MWh (when overnight wind output was elevated) through the day as wind faded and brown coal carried a larger share of the load. Sustainability managers should note this is a persistent evening pattern on low-wind days — the grid's carbon profile is materially worse during the 06:00–11:00 AEST (16:00–21:00 local) window compared with overnight hours.

The most operationally significant active notice for Victoria is **Market Notice 144122**, which flags an inter-regional transfer limit variation due to a planned outage of the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer, with constraint set **V-SMTX_F_R** active through to 17:00 AEST on 22 May. This constrains flows on interconnectors including VIC1-NSW1, V-SA, T-V-MNSP1, and V-S-MNSP1, limiting Victoria's ability to import or export freely — a factor sustaining the elevated local price. Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) sit around **$127.90–$136.40/MWh** across the most recent runs, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at **$119.56/MWh** in earlier predispatch but trending toward the $125–$135/MWh band in the more recent submissions. The 08:00 AEST (21:30 UTC) period carries higher uncertainty, with predispatch estimates ranging from $132/MWh to as high as $278