Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 18 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $83.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp reversal from the elevated range of $200–$300/MWh that persisted through the overnight period (roughly 06:30–13:15 AEST the prior trading day). That overnight sustained elevation reflects tight supply conditions with demand peaking above 6,100 MW, before easing through the afternoon as load dropped toward 4,370 MW during the 03:30 AEST trough. Demand now sits at 5,509 MW and is rising as the morning ramp progresses, consistent with typical winter Tuesday demand growth in Victoria.

The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 3,822 MW, with gas (OCGT) contributing 412 MW, wind at 907 MW, battery discharge at 27 MW, hydro at 0.3 MW, and solar at zero given the pre-dawn timestamp. Renewables are contributing 18.1% of the mix. Carbon intensity sits at 0.954 tCO2/MWh, elevated relative to the morning low of 0.668 tCO2/MWh recorded around 18:00 AEST when wind was stronger and demand lower. The overnight carbon trajectory ran as high as 1.056 tCO2/MWh during the 00:30–03:30 AEST window when wind output was weakest and brown coal and gas carried the bulk of load. A notable constraint affecting Victoria is the ongoing Murraylink outage (constraint set I-ML_ZERO active since 17 May), which zeros the VIC–SA MNSP1 interconnector flow and removes a flexibility pathway for the region. VicGrid has also updated the maximum generation contingency size in Victoria from 600 MW to 750 MW effective 13 May, widening generator dispatch headroom for south-west Victoria under outage conditions.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target point are converging tightly around $97/MWh, with the 21:30 AEST (07:30 AEST) target showing a slightly wider range of $110–$167/MWh across earlier forecast runs before settling near $110–$112/MWh in the most recent dispatches. This signals the market expects a modest step-up through the morning peak as demand climbs but does not anticipate a repeat of the overnight $250–$300/MWh spike. Optimal load windows cluster between 12:30–15:30 AEST tonight with forecast prices as low as $8.95–$19/MWh, indicating low-cost intervals suited to flexible or deferrable loads. Weather today shows 100% cloud cover, 11.6°C and negligible wind potential (0.3), meaning solar will contribute minimally through the day and wind generation is unlikely to replicate the stronger output seen in the prior morning session. Traders should note the active LOR1 notice for QLD on 19 May (06:00–19:30 AEST) — while not directly a Victorian notice, tight QLD conditions can affect NEM-wide dispatch and interconnector flows that influence Victorian pricing through the day.