Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 15 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST, deep in negative territory where it has spent the bulk of the past several hours. The price trajectory across today tells a clear story: the region ran at $60–$91/MWh during the pre-dawn morning peak (around 16:30–17:30 AEST yesterday evening into early morning), collapsed through zero as overnight demand fell away, and has held near or below zero since approximately 02:00 AEST. Total demand currently sits at 4,477 MW — well below the 6,040 MW peak seen earlier in the cycle — consistent with a quiet Saturday morning load profile. The 24-hour price average across the recorded history spans from -$12.10/MWh at the trough through to $90.88/MWh at the peak, with the bulk of settled intervals in the $60–$83/MWh band during business hours, making the current sub-zero print a sharp contrast to that daytime range.

Wind is the dominant fuel source at this interval, generating 2,913 MW — representing the overwhelming majority of the 3,973 MW total generation visible in the mix. Brown coal is contributing 1,057 MW, battery storage 2.75 MW, and hydro 0.42 MW. Solar is at zero, as expected at this pre-dawn hour, and both gas OCGT and CCGT units are offline. Renewables are contributing 73.4% of generation at the current interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.3246 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the low of 0.2723 tCO2/MWh recorded around 18:30 AEST (when wind output was peaking relative to load) but in line with the mid-range seen across today's carbon history, which has oscillated between 0.27 and 0.40 tCO2/MWh as wind output has varied against the brown coal baseload floor.

Predispatch forecasts are uniformly negative or near-zero through to at least 16:30 AEST today. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at -$10.67/MWh across multiple predispatch runs, with some runs pointing as low as -$12.10/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval holds negative, and prices are not forecast to recover into positive territory until the 16:00–16:30 AEST window, where the predispatch indicates a move into the $8.94–$16.88/MWh range coinciding with the morning demand ramp. The 17:00–17:30 AEST half-hours are forecast at $10.65–$21.00/MWh, reflecting the expected pre-evening peak step-up. Weather is a factor: current temperature is 14.4°C with 77% cloud cover and wind potential rated 2/10, suggesting wind generation may moderate through the day relative to the strong overnight output — watch the 16:30–17:30 AEST transition carefully as the negative-price window closes and peaking plant may be required.

The one active VIC1-specific market notice of immediate operational relevance is a non-conformance declared on unit LYA2 (Loy Yang A Unit 2) for the interval 20:30–20:35 AEST today, with a -16 MW deviation against constraint NC-V