Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 14 May 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $66.31/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,364 MW — well below the morning peak of 6,652 MW recorded around 18:10 AEST. Reviewing the rolling price history across the day, the region traded through a pronounced morning peak with prices touching $277.13/MWh at 08:30 AEST, before collapsing into a deep mid-afternoon trough where intervals printed as low as $13.58/MWh through the 03:45–04:00 AEST window. Prices have since recovered through the early-evening ramp, with the current $66.31/MWh sitting broadly in line with the $60–$70/MWh range that has characterised the last two hours of trading.
Wind is the dominant fuel source this interval at 2,257.8 MW, with brown coal contributing 992 MW and batteries dispatching 306.69 MW. Solar and gas (both OCGT and CCGT) are at zero output, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Hydro is effectively idle at 0.84 MW. Wind and battery combined account for the bulk of the 72.11% renewable penetration recorded in the latest interval — up sharply from the 42–51% range that prevailed through the overnight and early-morning periods when wind output was lower relative to thermal dispatch. Carbon intensity sits at 0.3402 tCO2/MWh, the lowest point in today's data series, reflecting the high wind share displacing brown coal at the margin.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are clustered in the $63–$68/MWh range, with the most recent runs at $63.88/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval carries slightly higher forecast prints, with runs between $67.67/MWh and $77.21/MWh, suggesting modest upward price pressure as demand builds through the morning peak. Load window data indicates very low prices — including negative intervals — are expected through the 11:30–15:00 AEST window (01:30–05:00 UTC), which aligns with overnight low-demand periods. Sustainability managers should note this window as a candidate for flexible load scheduling.
No active market notices directly constrain Victorian dispatch at this time. The most recent notice with VIC1 relevance dates to early May and involved the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines being reclassified as a credible contingency event due to lightning — that constraint set (V-ROYP78_R_N-2) was subsequently cancelled. The active notice log is dominated by SA voltage intervention events from 14 May, which have since been cancelled, and a NSW non-conformance for unit BW04 this morning (01:30–01:40 AEST, -28 MW). Neither directly affects Victorian interconnector flows or dispatch, though traders with SA–VIC exposure should note the SA voltage intervention history when assessing cross-border flow risk through the day.