Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 13 May 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $87.69/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 5,707 MW and climbing through the morning peak. That price represents a significant step-up from the overnight trough, where intervals dipped as low as $10.65/MWh between roughly midnight and 02:00 AEST, and a moderation from the intraday high of $110.68/MWh reached during the early-evening peak around 07:15 AEST. The 24-hour price profile follows a clear winter morning demand shape: soft overnight pricing, a sharp ramp through the 06:00–09:00 AEST window as demand climbed from below 4,500 MW toward 6,700+ MW, a mid-morning plateau in the $72–$93/MWh range, an afternoon softening into the $45–$65/MWh band, and now a renewed climb as the evening peak builds.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows brown coal supplying 1,656 MW, wind contributing 1,260 MW, battery discharging 160 MW, and hydro at 17 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Gas (both OCGT and CCGT) is offline. Renewable penetration sits at 46.47%, up from a mid-afternoon low of around 37–39% when wind eased and solar contribution was negligible. Carbon intensity is 0.6531 tCO2/MWh — notably lower than the morning peak readings of 0.80–0.81 tCO2/MWh seen at 07:00–07:30 AEST when demand was highest relative to wind output. With today's forecast showing a clear day (4% cloud cover currently, maximum 20.8°C, average solar potential of 18.4 across the day), rooftop and utility solar will begin contributing meaningfully from around 08:00 AEST onward, which should exert downward pressure on both carbon intensity and midday spot prices.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) have converged tightly at $87.69/MWh across the most recent runs, while the 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $87.69–$88.19/MWh. Earlier in the day, forecasts for this same period were sitting in the $65–$75/MWh range, with the upward revision reflecting stronger-than-expected evening demand. The forward curve through the overnight window points to a sharp price retreat, with load window data indicating prices in the $8.95–$35/MWh range from 08:30 AEST through to 15:30 AEST (overnight UTC), consistent with the structural overnight demand trough and solar generation arriving during tomorrow's daylight hours.
On market notices, no active notices directly constrain Victorian dispatch at this time. The most recent VIC1-relevant notice (144062) covers the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines, which were reclassified and subsequently de-reclassified as a credible contingency on 7 May — that constraint set (V-ROYP78\_R\_N-2) is now revoked. An inter-regional transfer notice (144075) relates to the Tailem Bend–South East No.1