Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 12 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $80.86/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,557 MW and climbing as the morning ramp builds. Comparing this to the overnight trough — where prices dipped as low as $0/MWh at 15:00 AEST and held in the $21–$45/MWh range through the small hours — the current price reflects a typical winter morning demand step-up. The 24-hour price profile shows a clear structure: an evening peak reaching $129.66/MWh around 08:40 AEST last night, a prolonged low-price overnight window, and a morning re-ramp now pushing prices back above $80/MWh. Grid stress scores at 88.4 out of 100, flagging the grid is operating with limited headroom at this demand level.

The current generation mix (as of 06:30 AEST) totals approximately 3,209 MW of tracked dispatch: brown coal contributes 1,640 MW (51%), wind 1,069 MW (33%), batteries 280 MW (9%), and hydro 220 MW (7%). Solar and both gas types — OCGT and CCGT — are contributing zero at this hour, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 48.89% and carbon intensity is 0.6236 tCO2/MWh, a marked improvement on the overnight low-renewable window where intensity peaked above 1.10 tCO2/MWh between 03:30 and 04:00 AEST when wind output was at its lowest. The morning wind ramp has driven intensity down materially from those overnight highs. Weather conditions are overcast with 98% cloud cover and near-zero wind potential at ground level, though turbine-height wind is clearly producing — today's solar contribution will be constrained by autumn cloud cover, with modest solar potential of 7.8 forecast for tomorrow as conditions improve.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices in the $80–$90/MWh range for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, converging around $81–$82/MWh through the late morning based on the most recent runs (as of 06:01 AEST). The 07:30 AEST window is forecast significantly higher, with multiple predispatch runs placing it in the $100–$118/MWh range — the spread between runs is wide, signalling meaningful dispatch uncertainty around that period. Traders should watch the 07:30 AEST window closely; it has consistently attracted triple-digit forecasts across multiple predispatch cycles, suggesting either demand exceeds current expectations or committed capacity is tighter than the base case. Load shifting into the overnight window from 09:00 to 11:30 AEST (AEST equivalent of 23:00–01:30 UTC) remains excellent value based on load window analysis, with prices forecast in the $9–$38/MWh range.

The most relevant active market notice for Victoria is the MT PASA Reserve Notice (144070, issued 12 May), which confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified over the medium term — system adequacy is not a concern at this stage. Earlier VIC1-specific contingency reclassifications involving the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines (notices 144056–144062) have all been cancelled and those circuits have reverted to non-