Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 11 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $82.20/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,721 MW. That price is materially softer than the sustained peak seen through the morning trading window, where prices ran between $100–$138/MWh from roughly 17:00–19:30 AEST during the demand ramp. The 24-hour price profile shows a sharp overnight trough — prices bottomed below $15/MWh between 11:00–12:00 AEST — before a classic winter morning ramp pushed prices through triple digits as demand climbed from under 4,200 MW to a session high near 7,002 MW around 07:35 AEST. The current $82.20/MWh reading reflects demand easing back from that peak as the early-evening shoulder begins.

The generation mix at the most recent trading interval is dominated by brown coal at 1,650 MW, with wind contributing 248 MW and hydro a negligible 0.42 MW. Solar, gas OCGT, and gas CCGT are all at zero, consistent with the post-sunset period. Renewable penetration stands at 13.08% — well below the mid-morning high of approximately 27.6% recorded around 21:30 AEST when wind output was stronger. Carbon intensity is 1.0604 tCO2/MWh, up from a session low near 0.86 tCO2/MWh during the late-morning period when renewable penetration was at its peak. The overnight carbon history shows intensity tracking above 1.17 tCO2/MWh through the low-demand small-hours window when wind was minimal, confirming the mix is heavily weighted to baseload thermal when variable generation is absent.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) are consistently clustering in the $87–$107/MWh range across multiple forecast runs, with the most recent run at 06:01 AEST pointing to $87.54/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) forecasts are more elevated, ranging $106–$129/MWh across earlier runs, suggesting the market anticipates a modest price step-up as the evening demand ramp resumes and demand approaches the 5,700–6,000 MW range. Today's weather — a clear, cool morning (8.5°C, near-calm winds) with a forecast max of 18.9°C and low cloud cover — supports elevated heating demand through the morning and limited wind generation uplift given the near-zero wind potential forecast.

The one active market notice directly relevant to Victoria is the completed MSATS 56.2 BAU and PMS release (CHG0110288), which poses no ongoing operational impact. There are no active LOR notices, market intervention events, or inter-regional transfer constraints currently affecting VIC1. The Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV line contingency reclassifications from 6–7 May are fully resolved. Load shifting opportunities are rated excellent through the 09:00–14:00 AEST window, with forecast prices in the $8.95–$25/MWh range in the early morning hours, providing a material spread of over $100/MWh against this morning's peak — a strong signal for flexible industrial loads and battery operators targeting the overnight charge window.