regional vic — VIC1

The spot price in Victoria sits at $12.11/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, representing a sharp recovery from the extended negative pricing that dominated overnight and through the solar window — prices ran negative from roughly 08:30 AEST last night through to the early hours of this morning, bottoming at -$13.45/MWh around 12:05–12:20 AEST. The current generation mix is led by brown coal at 1,562 MW and wind at 1,084 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 109.5 MW and hydro a negligible 0.32 MW. Solar output is zero at this hour and gas CCGT is offline. Total demand sits at 4,979 MW, well below the morning peak of 6,336 MW recorded around 18:35 AEST.

Renewables are contributing 39.36% of generation at the latest interval, with carbon intensity at 0.7172 tCO2/MWh. This is a notable improvement from the morning peak intensity of 1.031 tCO2/MWh recorded around 17:30–18:00 AEST, when wind output was lower and brown coal was carrying a heavier share of load. The carbon intensity profile over the day tracked inversely with renewable penetration, which reached above 52% in the mid-afternoon window between roughly 23:45 and 04:45 AEST when negative prices prevailed.

Predispatch forecasts point to a step-up from current levels as demand builds through the morning peak. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at approximately $34.69/MWh based on the most recent predispatch run, with the broader morning band from 16:00–17:00 AEST forecast in the $31–$35/MWh range. This is consistent with the typical autumn morning ramp as demand rises and solar output remains limited in the shorter-day conditions. The overnight and early-morning windows from 10:00 AEST tonight onward are forecast to return to negative territory, with predispatch showing prices ranging from -$3.26 to -$9.67/MWh through the 11:00–13:00 AEST window, reflecting anticipated surplus generation conditions similar to those seen in the preceding 24 hours.

Traders should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices for Victoria. AEMO is reviewing multiple intervals across today under Clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, spanning intervals from 03:30 AEST through to 15:45 AEST. Two earlier intervals — 01:50 AEST and 05:25 AEST — have since been confirmed with prices unchanged following review. The 05:30, 05:20, 05:10, 04:50, 04:30, 04:15, 04:00, and several other early-morning intervals remain subject to active review. Participants with exposure to these periods should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO confirms or revises them.