regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $87.04/MWh against a demand of 925.55 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Scanning the prior 24 hours reveals a wide intraday range — prices dipped as low as $22.02/MWh during the mid-afternoon trough (around 02:00–02:20 AEST) before recovering sharply into the evening, with a brief spike to $102.30/MWh at 06:00 AEST. The sustained block of $96.20–$96.24/MWh that persisted through most of the morning session (roughly 17:30–22:55 AEST) reflects tighter conditions during the business-day peak, placing the current $87.04/MWh at a moderate discount to that elevated mid-session band.

The generation mix is entirely renewable at this interval: hydro is contributing 360.48 MW and wind 133.37 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, a condition that has held consistently across all recorded intervals throughout the past 24 hours. Total metered generation from these two sources sits at approximately 494 MW against the 925.55 MW demand figure, indicating the remainder is sourced via the Basslink interconnector from Victoria.

Predispatch forecasts for the coming intervals point to prices settling in the $84–$87/MWh range through the morning, with the 07:30 AEST half-hour currently forecast around $84.46/MWh before firming back toward $86–$87/MWh from 08:00 AEST onwards. The 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) window shows some forecast divergence, with individual runs ranging from $75.00 to $87.04/MWh, suggesting residual uncertainty around interconnector scheduling or hydro dispatch decisions in that period. Overnight (from roughly 10:00–12:00 AEST) forecasts consolidate in the $85–$89/MWh band.

Traders and engineers should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices covering today's early-morning intervals. PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) are active for a consecutive run of intervals spanning approximately 00:05 through 05:45 AEST, covering over 20 trading intervals. Two earlier review notices — for 01:50 AEST and 05:25 AEST — have since been confirmed with prices unchanged, providing some reassurance, but the bulk of this morning's intervals remain under active review. Participants with settlement exposure in the 00:00–06:00 AEST window should treat those prices as provisional until AEMO issues confirmation notices.