regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $103.44/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,385 MW. That current price represents a significant premium against the overnight trough, where prices fell to as low as -$13.53/MWh during the early-morning low-demand window (approximately 00:25–01:35 AEST) driven by sustained wind output against minimal load. The morning ramp has been sharp: prices climbed from near-zero at 15:25 AEST (UTC+10 offset applied) through to a peak of $198/MWh at 17:00 and 17:30 AEST before settling into the $103–$122/MWh range through the current interval.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is wind-dominated, with wind contributing 386 MW and gas CCGT providing 216 MW. Gas OCGT and utility solar are both at zero output. Wind accounts for approximately 64% of local generation, with the remainder from gas CCGT. Carbon intensity sits at 0.1759 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 64.1% — materially lower than the mid-day peak of 89.8% recorded around 23:20 AEST and 89.4% at 23:45 AEST, when prices were at or below zero and gas output was minimised. The intensity reading has risen from a low of 0.0500 tCO2/MWh as solar and midday conditions compressed thermal dispatch, reflecting the expected evening-to-morning shift in mix as solar exits and gas fills the residual load.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the next two 30-minute intervals point to continued elevation: the 07:00 AEST interval is forecast at $103.44/MWh across the most recent runs, while the 07:30 AEST interval carries forecasts ranging from $103.44/MWh to $138/MWh depending on the run, and the 08:00 AEST interval is forecast at $299.44/MWh in the most recent dispatches — a material step up consistent with the morning demand peak. The 08:30 AEST interval also carries $299.44/MWh. Forecasts ease from 09:00 AEST onwards into the $130–$170/MWh range before moderating further into midday. Traders should note that pre-dispatch volatility for the 06:00–08:30 AEST window has been high across runs, with some intervals carrying forecasts that shifted from $1,001/MWh early in the day down to current settled levels, indicating significant uncertainty in the dispatch stack through the morning peak.

AEMO has issued a large volume of market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from approximately 23:00 AEST on 21 April through to 15:45 AEST today, with the majority still active as "Prices Subject to Review." Two intervals — 21 April 21:45 AEST and 22 April 01:50 AEST — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The sheer volume of open review notices (spanning roughly 16 hours of trading intervals) warrants close attention; while confirmed intervals to date have been left unchanged, any revision to negative-price intervals overnight could alter settlement positions materially for load and generation alike.