regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at **$65.83/MWh** at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,288 MW and climbing as the morning ramp continues. That current price is materially softer than the sustained elevation seen through the evening peak, where prices ran from $140–$277/MWh between roughly 07:35 and 09:05 AEST overnight (19:35–21:05 UTC). The overnight trough — driven by low demand through the 01:00–05:00 AEST window — saw prices compress to the $12–$25/MWh range, with the loadwindow data showing multiple intervals pricing at or below zero in the 12:00–15:30 AEST window (00:00–03:30 UTC). The 24-hour trading session has therefore been characterised by a sharp demand and price arc: deep troughs overnight, a steep morning ramp now underway.

The generation mix as of 06:50 AEST (19:50 UTC) shows **brown coal at 2,199 MW**, wind at **736 MW**, gas OCGT at **109 MW**, hydro at 0.32 MW, and both solar and gas CCGT at zero. Total on-register output of approximately 3,044 MW against 5,288 MW of demand implies significant net imports from interconnectors — consistent with VIC's typical reliance on NSW and SA flows during morning ramp conditions. Renewable penetration sits at **23.13%** per the latest carbon intensity interval (19:30 UTC), reflecting the wind contribution but no solar at this pre-dawn hour; that share will contract further as wind output varies and solar remains offline until well after sunrise. Carbon intensity is **0.917 tCO2/MWh**, which has improved from the overnight high of 1.186 tCO2/MWh (21:00 UTC) as wind generation picked up relative to the low-demand overnight load profile. With demand now rising and brown coal carrying the baseload, expect intensity to firm slightly through the morning peak.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) cluster tightly in the **$67–$77/MWh** range across the most recent runs, with the last three forecasts (20:02, 19:32, 19:02 UTC) printing $66.76, $66.77 and $68.24/MWh respectively — a notable step down from earlier-in-the-day forecasts that had that interval pencilled at $82–$99/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast in the low-to-mid $70s. This suggests the market is not anticipating a repeat of last night's sustained triple-digit pricing at this stage, though demand is still building toward the morning peak and any supply-side constraint or interconnector limitation could reprice quickly.

Traders and grid engineers should note a significant volume of active **AEMO market notices** flagging prices subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) across a continuous run of overnight intervals from approximately 00:05 through to 06:20 AEST today. Two of those reviews have resolved with prices confirmed unchanged (02:25 and 03:25 AEST). The remaining active review notices — spanning 01:05 through 06:20 AEST — are still open, meaning settlement values