regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $74.76/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,290 MW. Placing that in context, today's price represents a significant moderation from the elevated conditions seen overnight, where intervals between 08:00–08:30 AEST ranged from $150–$302/MWh during what appears to have been a period of constrained supply and rising demand. The price trajectory through the afternoon and evening settled progressively lower, with the 04:00–05:00 AEST window recording some of the session's softest reads in the $48–$55/MWh band before a mild uptick into the current interval.

Wind is the dominant generation source at 557.94 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 82.02 MW. Gas OCGT and solar are both at zero output at this hour, consistent with overnight/early-morning conditions where solar generation is absent and peaking plant is off. Renewable penetration sits at 87.1% as of the most recent carbon intensity interval (05:00 AEST), a substantial shift from the depths of overnight where wind output was lower and gas carried a greater share of the load — carbon intensity troughed at 0.063 tCO2/MWh for the current period compared to 0.475–0.497 tCO2/MWh recorded around 07:00–08:00 AEST. The intraday pattern in carbon data is clear: intensity rises sharply through the morning peak as demand climbs and the generation mix shifts, then eases through the afternoon and evening as wind picks up its share.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target (21:00 UTC) are clustered in the $65–$67/MWh range from the most recent runs, with earlier forecasts from overnight sitting closer to $77–$98/MWh — the convergence downward reflects improving wind conditions and reduced uncertainty as the dispatch horizon shortens. Load window modelling points to prices falling sharply through the 08:30–09:30 AEST window, with multiple forecast runs showing negative prices ($-3 to $-20/MWh) from roughly 10:00–11:30 AEST as solar generation begins to ramp in earnest against relatively soft weekday demand. Flexible load operators and battery schedulers should note this window closely.

AEMO has issued a substantial run of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering intervals from approximately 00:05 through 12:20 AEST today. Two of these reviews — for the 02:25 and 03:25 AEST intervals — have subsequently been confirmed with prices unchanged. Six further intervals spanning 05:25–06:20 AEST remain under active review as of the latest notice batch, meaning prices for those intervals are not yet final. Traders with exposure to those periods should hold positions accordingly until confirmation notices are issued.