commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $64.83/MWh with demand at 6,466 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That is a significant step down from the morning peak, which reached 7,948 MW at 18:10 AEST (06:10 UTC) and drove prices to $103.98/MWh — the ceiling seen twice through the 18:00–18:35 AEST window. The price-demand relationship across today's data is direct and consistent: every demand increment above roughly 7,500 MW pushed prices above $80/MWh, while the descent back through 7,000 MW has brought prices into the $60–$70/MWh band where they currently sit.

Overnight demand troughed around 4,509–4,665 MW between 10:30 and 11:00 AEST, producing the floor-price episodes — including zero and sub-$10/MWh intervals — that are characteristic of Queensland's low-demand, low-variable-generation night. The morning ramp from that trough to peak demand of nearly 7,948 MW was steep and sustained, rising approximately 3,400 MW over roughly eight hours, with prices tracking upward in near-lockstep from sub-$10/MWh to above $100/MWh. Price sensitivity is notable: the market cleared above $90/MWh only when demand exceeded approximately 7,700 MW, a threshold that appears to mark the point where higher-cost plant is dispatched on the margin.

The most recent AEMO forecast (issued 06:01 AEST) puts the next 30-minute interval (07:00 AEST) at $54.75/MWh, a material downward revision from earlier forecasts that had that period in the $71–$79/MWh range. Forecasts for the 07:30 AEST interval sit around $22.81/MWh, consistent with the demand trajectory pointing lower as the post-peak unwind continues. Load windows across the overnight period from 08:00 AEST onward show forecast prices in negative territory — reaching as low as -$25/MWh in the 10:00–12:00 AEST window — which aligns with the low-demand, generation-surplus conditions Queensland regularly sees in this autumn overnight profile.

Traders and demand-side managers should note that AEMO has multiple intervals from this morning still flagged as "Prices Subject to Review" under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), spanning intervals from approximately 00:30 through to 06:20 AEST. One interval — 05:55 AEST — has since been confirmed unchanged. The remaining open reviews introduce settlement uncertainty for positions covering those intervals. The immediate price outlook is softening in line with falling demand; the key watch point for an upward price revision today will be whether the next morning demand build — expected from around 16:00 AEST onward — pushes consumption back through the 7,500 MW threshold that has consistently marked the transition to elevated pricing.