Carbon Forecast

Tasmania sits at 0 tCO₂/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro (601 MW) and wind (127 MW) comprise the entire dispatch stack as of 06:25 AEST. South Australia is the standout on the mainland at just 0.06 tCO₂/MWh with 87% renewables, driven by 558 MW of wind and a small gas CCGT baseload of 82 MW; this follows a sustained overnight green window where intensity touched as low as 0.06 tCO₂/MWh from around 01:30 AEST onwards. Victoria is at 0.92 tCO₂/MWh with 23% renewables, where 2,207 MW of brown coal dominates the mix alongside 807 MW of wind and minimal hydro output. Queensland is the highest-intensity mainland region at 0.85 tCO₂/MWh with only 4% renewables — the mix is almost entirely 2,448 MW of black coal with negligible hydro and a trace of gas peaking. NSW sits at 0.81 tCO₂/MWh with 8% renewables, anchored by 5,108 MW of black coal and 600 MW of hydro, with wind and solar contributing 181 MW combined.

The overnight pattern across the NEM shows a clear solar-driven inflection. SA intensity dropped sharply from around 01:30 AEST as wind ramped, and that low-intensity period is now extending through the pre-dawn hours. NSW and QLD follow the opposite pattern — intensity peaked in the overnight trough (around 01:00–07:00 AEST) when solar was absent and coal carried full load, and has been declining modestly since sunrise. The SA data confirms a sustained low-carbon window from roughly 13:30–19:30 AEST yesterday that is now continuing, with intensity below 0.13 tCO₂/MWh across that afternoon bloc and renewables exceeding 73%.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, SA offers the most favourable scheduling window by a wide margin and that window is already open. The trajectory through the AEST morning and afternoon suggests SA will remain sub-0.10 tCO₂/MWh while wind holds up, with the risk period being the early morning demand ramp around 07:00–08:00 AEST when gas CCGT and OCGT tends to fill. TAS remains optimal at zero intensity at all times. In NSW and QLD, the lowest-intensity windows align with peak solar output — approximately 09:00–11:00 AEST — where NSW intensity drops toward 0.73 tCO₂/MWh and renewables approach 17%. VIC intensity has been declining since overnight lows near 1.19 tCO₂/MWh and is currently tracking down, with the afternoon solar and wind contribution expected to push it toward 0.93–0.95 tCO₂/MWh through the midday period. Carbon-sensitive scheduling in the mainland east should target the 09:00–16:00 AEST window where solar penetration is highest across NSW and VIC.