Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 19 April 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $126.05/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,666 MW. That current price reflects a sustained elevated period: after the morning ramp kicked in around 05:50 AEST, prices climbed sharply through the 06:00–08:00 AEST window, hitting intraday peaks above $240/MWh before settling into a $125–$135/MWh band. The contrast with the overnight trough is stark — prices ran negative for an extended stretch from roughly 23:30 AEST through 05:30 AEST (reaching as low as -$6.01/MWh), reflecting low overnight demand and surplus baseload output depressing wholesale rates.
The generation mix is heavily weighted to brown coal, with 2,215 MW dispatched at the latest trading interval. Gas OCGT is contributing 110.89 MW, wind is at a very low 24.45 MW, hydro at 0.32 MW, and solar is at zero given the pre-dawn trading period. That mix directly explains the carbon intensity reading of 1.1803 tCO2/MWh, which is among the highest recorded across today's trading intervals — carbon intensity peaked above 1.18 tCO2/MWh as overnight wind output faded. Renewable penetration sits at just 1.05%, well below the day's earlier high of around 24.6% during the overnight period when demand was lower and wind was more active relative to total load.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) show considerable spread, ranging from roughly $120/MWh to $261/MWh across successive forecast runs, with the most recent run (20:01 UTC / 06:01 AEST) pointing to $154/MWh for 07:00 AEST and multiple runs hitting the $261/MWh cap for 07:30 AEST. That volatility in predispatch signals tight supply conditions as demand continues to build into the morning peak — load windows indicate prices easing substantially from around 09:00 AEST onward as demand rolls back, with overnight load windows from 23:00 AEST projected well below $60/MWh.
Traders and grid engineers should note an active and extensive series of AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for intervals spanning 04:05 AEST through 06:30 AEST — covering more than two hours of consecutive dispatch intervals this morning. Two earlier intervals (02:20 AEST and 04:40 AEST) have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of early-morning negative-price intervals remain under active review. Settlements positions referencing those intervals should be treated with caution until AEMO confirms or revises those prices.