regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $110.24/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,189 MW. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, the region traded in the $65–$96/MWh range through the overnight period before stepping up firmly into the $110/MWh band from around 16:30 AEST, where it has remained anchored for the past 14 hours. The morning peak saw brief excursions above $150/MWh between 07:10 and 08:40 AEST, with a single interval reaching $213.13/MWh at 08:40, before settling back to the prevailing $110/MWh level. The current price is running approximately 25–30% above the sub-$90/MWh overnight trough.

The generation mix is fully renewable at this interval, with hydro supplying 631 MW and wind contributing 28 MW. Gas OCGT registers zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has been sustained across every recorded interval in the prior 24-hour carbon history. At 8.3°C with 97% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential, heating demand registers at 9.7 units and wind potential is minimal at 0.2 — conditions consistent with hydro carrying the bulk of the load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period (21:00 UTC target) are broadly converging on $110.24/MWh across the most recent runs, though several earlier predispatch intervals flagged prices in the $176–$198/MWh range for that same window before pulling back. The 07:30 AEST period shows a small cluster of forecasts at $110–$126/MWh. Forward windows from 08:00 through 13:00 AEST are largely centred on $88–$96/MWh, suggesting a moderate price step-down once the morning demand peak passes, with the 11:00 AEST window (01:00 UTC) the most consistently forecast at $88–$91/MWh across multiple predispatch runs.

Traders should note a significant volume of active AEMO market notices: AEMO is reviewing prices across a continuous run of intervals from 03:35 through 06:30 AEST today under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), with notices still active and no confirmation of finalised prices for most of those periods. One earlier reviewed interval — 04:40 AEST — was confirmed unchanged following review. The breadth of the review window (covering roughly three hours of consecutive intervals) warrants attention; if any intervals are revised, settlement exposure for positions covering that period could shift. No affected regions are specified in the notices, so the review scope across the NEM is currently unclear from the available data.