regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $136.97/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,257.69 MW. That current price is firmly in line with the sustained $130–$140/MWh band that has persisted through most of the afternoon and evening. The 24-hour price arc tells a clear story: prices collapsed into negative territory overnight — bottoming at -$4.93/MWh around 02:35 AEST — before a sharp morning ramp through the pre-dawn period, with a peak of $262/MWh recorded at 07:40 AEST (18:40 UTC) during peak demand that reached 1,554 MW. Since that morning peak, prices have settled but remain elevated, reflecting tighter supply conditions as wind generation is minimal.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST (20:00 UTC) shows gas CCGT contributing 273.48 MW, gas OCGT 99.32 MW, and wind just 60.73 MW, with solar at zero given the overnight window. Total visible dispatchable output sits around 433 MW, with the interconnector making up the balance of the 1,257.69 MW load. Renewable penetration stands at 14.01% — a significant drop from the overnight period when wind was sustaining 93%+ renewable share and prices were negative. Carbon intensity is currently 0.458 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from the sub-0.035 tCO2/MWh readings recorded between 07:00–09:00 AEST overnight when wind was dominant.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hour periods (21:00–21:30 UTC) show considerable dispersion, ranging from $138/MWh to $290/MWh across successive forecast runs, with the most recent 06:01 AEST run printing $170.44/MWh for 07:00 and $151.42/MWh for 07:30. The volatility in forecast prints — including a $288–$290/MWh spike in some runs — signals that the market is sensitive to small changes in wind output or interconnector flows as the morning demand ramp continues. Load window data indicates prices are expected to ease significantly from around 10:30–11:00 AEST (00:30–01:00 UTC) onward, falling toward low single digits and negative territory as solar generation builds and demand eases through the early hours.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued an extensive series of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B for intervals spanning approximately 04:05 through 06:30 AEST today, citing possible Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. A prior review of the 04:40 AEST interval was resolved with prices confirmed unchanged. However, with more than 25 intervals still under active review across the early morning period, final settlement prices for those windows remain uncertain. Positions settled against those intervals carry revision risk until AEMO concludes its assessments.