commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $98.80/MWh with demand at 6,510 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and the trajectory through the morning session tells the full story of today's price dynamic. Demand troughed near 3,750 MW overnight around 11:50 AEST Sunday, when prices were consistently negative (reaching as low as -$8.80/MWh), before climbing sharply through the pre-dawn period. The morning ramp was steep — demand crossed 5,000 MW around 14:45 AEST Sunday and accelerated through 6,000 MW from roughly 15:50 AEST, at which point prices broke convincingly into positive territory. The price response to that ramp was near-linear: each 500 MW increment in demand through the 5,500–6,500 MW range corresponded to a roughly $30–40/MWh lift in the spot price, illustrating how tightly the market is priced at the margin in this demand band on a Monday morning.

The day-ahead forecast for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is consistently pointing to $104/MWh, with earlier pre-dawn runs as high as $117.73/MWh before converging lower as the dispatch outcome came into view. The 07:30 AEST window is forecast at approximately $91–96/MWh, suggesting the market expects demand to ease slightly from the current peak as the morning commercial load stabilises. That profile — $95–110/MWh through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window, softening toward the $80–90/MWh range by mid-morning — is consistent with the demand curve seen in the price history, where the 07:00–09:00 AEST band held 7,400–7,800 MW and prices ranged $80–111/MWh before demand began declining toward 7,000 MW from 10:00 AEST with prices easing to the $70–90/MWh range.

A material data quality issue is active: AEMO has issued manifestly incorrect inputs notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for every interval from 05:30 through 06:30 AEST today, covering 13 consecutive dispatch intervals. One interval — 04:40 AEST — has already been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. Prices in the 05:30–06:30 AEST window (currently showing $0 to $47.99/MWh) are subject to revision and should not be used for settlement or reference price calculations until AEMO confirms outcomes. The load window data for tonight's off-peak period (08:00–10:00 AEST, equivalent to 22:00–00:00 UTC) shows forecast prices in the $30–37/MWh range, dropping to negative territory by 09:30 AEST equivalent — consistent with the overnight demand trough pattern observed in the price history and relevant to any demand-shifting decisions later today.