Carbon Forecast

The NEM's carbon intensity picture at 06:30 AEST is sharply split across regions. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro at 638.64 MW and wind at 29.88 MW account for the entire grid, and that figure is constant across the full dataset. South Australia is at 0.48 tCO2/MWh with 10.66% renewable penetration at the latest interval; wind (46.93 MW) and gas CCGT (283.9 MW) plus OCGT (109.47 MW) make up the current mix, with solar at zero. NSW sits at 0.74 tCO2/MWh with 15.87% renewables — black coal at 5,948.68 MW dominates, supported by hydro at 1,029.7 MW and wind at 92.53 MW. Queensland is at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with just 2.94% renewables, driven almost entirely by black coal at 2,835.31 MW with negligible solar and OCGT output. Victoria carries the highest intensity at 1.18 tCO2/MWh with only 0.92% renewable penetration; brown coal at 2,196 MW is the dominant source, with OCGT at 110.37 MW and wind contributing only 21.14 MW.

The trajectory through the data reveals clear intra-day patterns. SA recorded its lowest intensities overnight — dropping to 0.03 tCO2/MWh between 07:00–09:30 AEST yesterday when wind penetration reached 93–94% — but has risen steadily since around midday as wind output softens and gas carries more load, now sitting near 0.48 tCO2/MWh. NSW followed a similar arc: intensity fell from ~0.86 tCO2/MWh overnight to a daytime low of ~0.71 tCO2/MWh around 19:30–20:30 AEST as solar lifted renewable share toward 19%, before climbing back as solar dropped off. Victoria's intensity has trended upward through the afternoon and evening, peaking above 1.18 tCO2/MWh with renewables below 1%. Queensland has held a tight band of 0.85–0.86 tCO2/MWh through most of the day with negligible renewable variation, reflecting its coal-dominated baseload profile.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling today, Tasmania remains the clear option for zero-intensity operations at any hour — that profile does not change. In SA and NSW, the next low-intensity window will be solar-driven: expect intensity to ease from approximately 08:00–09:00 AEST as rooftop and utility solar ramps, with SA potentially returning to the 0.03–0.10 tCO2/MWh range seen overnight if wind conditions are favourable, and NSW dipping back toward 0.71–0.74 tCO2/MWh through the 09:30–11:30 AEST window based on yesterday's pattern. Victoria and Queensland offer no near-term low-intensity windows under current mix conditions; carbon-sensitive loads in those regions should target off-peak overnight slots if interregional transfer options are unavailable.