regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $100.50/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 4,827 MW — up sharply from the overnight trough where prices repeatedly printed at or below zero between roughly 13:30 and 15:40 AEST. The current price reflects a classic late-evening demand lift, having tracked between $80–$128/MWh through the morning peak before easing into the mid-afternoon and now firming again as the evening progresses. The 24-hour arc ran from negative territory (as low as -$2.84/MWh around 14:30 AEST) to a daytime high of $127.90/MWh near 17:15–17:30 AEST, placing the current $100.50/MWh firmly in the elevated evening band.

The generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,204 MW, with wind contributing 246 MW, gas OCGT at 110 MW, and hydro at 17 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the overnight hour. Renewable penetration sits at 10.21%, down from a midday high near 14–15% and well below the overnight wind-supported peak of around 22% seen earlier in the 24-hour period. Carbon intensity is 1.071 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight low of 0.91 tCO2/MWh but slightly improved from the 07:00–08:00 AEST peak of 1.164 tCO2/MWh when wind output was minimal and brown coal was carrying the bulk of demand.

Predispatch forecasts point to a significant price correction overnight. The 07:00 AEST half-hour interval is forecast at around $87–$108/MWh (with the most recent predispatch run at $107.90/MWh), but prices are forecast to collapse through the early hours: the 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at approximately $33/MWh, 08:00 AEST near zero to slightly negative, deepening to -$2.76/MWh by 09:00 AEST, and extending further negative through 09:30–10:30 AEST with some runs printing below -$10/MWh. The deepest negative forecasts appear in the 10:00–11:30 AEST window (midnight to 01:30 local), with isolated runs reaching -$24/MWh. Flexible load operators and battery operators have a clear overnight opportunity window across approximately 21:30–06:30 AEST.

AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active market notices — all of the "Prices Subject to Review" type under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) — covering every five-minute interval from approximately 03:25 through to 06:25 AEST today. Two earlier intervals (02:25 and 03:25 AEST) have since been confirmed unchanged. The volume and continuity of these notices across the early-morning negative-price period is notable; traders should treat settled prices for those intervals as provisional until AEMO completes its review and issues confirmation notices. No affected regions are specified in the notices, so the review scope may extend beyond Victoria.