regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $110.22/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well above the extended overnight range of $65–$96/MWh that characterised most of the past 24 hours. The step-up began around 07:00 AEST yesterday as demand climbed through 1,150 MW and has held in the $110/MWh band since, with a brief spike to $177.20/MWh at 08:15 AEST the sole excursion above that level. Total demand sits at 1,163 MW, consistent with a typical cool-autumn Sunday morning profile — overnight temperature is 2.7°C with heating demand index at 15.3, which anchors the elevated base load. The 24-hour price average across the history supplied runs approximately $93–$95/MWh, meaning the current print is tracking around 15–18% above that mean.

The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is producing 717.0 MW and wind contributing 12.1 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, a position that has been sustained without interruption across every recorded interval in the data set. The low wind figure (12.1 MW) relative to installed capacity indicates minimal aeolian contribution today, with wind potential scored at just 0.3 and solar potential at zero given pre-dawn conditions and 57% cloud cover.

Predispatch forecasts are consistent and settled: prices are expected to ease to $96.22/MWh at 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) and hold in that range through at least 08:00 AEST. Further out, load window forecasts point to softer pricing through the overnight trough — intervals around 09:30–10:00 AEST (23:30–00:00 UTC) are tipped at $65–$67/MWh, and the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) window carries a consensus forecast of $96.22/MWh across all predispatch runs from 13:03 AEST onward. The trajectory is a moderate step down from the current $110/MWh level as Sunday demand softens through mid-morning.

Traders should note an extensive series of active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for intervals from 05:00 through 06:30 AEST today. These span 34 consecutive intervals and remain active; two earlier reviews (02:25 and 03:25 AEST) were subsequently confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of this morning's early intervals are still under assessment. Any retrospective price revision across those intervals could affect settlement for participants with exposure in the Tasmanian region during that window. Monitor the AEMO market notice board for confirmation or revision outcomes before finalising positions.