regional sa — SA1

The spot price in South Australia sits at $111.93/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well above the sustained overnight trough where prices tracked negative or near-zero for several hours from around 23:30 to 06:00 AEST. The 24-hour price arc has been sharply V-shaped: deep negatives through the early morning (reaching -$3/MWh or lower across multiple intervals) before a rapid morning ramp that pushed prices above $100/MWh from roughly 17:00 AEST onwards, with the most recent intervals holding in the $101–$117/MWh range. Demand sits at 1,181.67 MW, down from the day's peak of approximately 1,507 MW seen around 18:15–18:30 AEST, consistent with a typical Sunday load taper into the evening.

The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 519.73 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 40 MW and gas OCGT and solar both at 0 MW. Renewables are contributing 92.85% of local generation at this interval, with carbon intensity sitting at a very low 0.035 tCO2/MWh. This is a significant improvement from the morning carbon peak of 0.49 tCO2/MWh recorded around 07:30–08:00 AEST, when wind output was minimal and gas carried a much heavier share of the load during the morning demand ramp. The renewable penetration trend through the day has been pronounced: from a low of around 8% at 07:30 AEST, the grid has progressively shifted back toward wind as the morning peak passed, reaching above 93% by 15:30 AEST and sustaining that level through the evening.

Predispatch forecasts point to a material price step-down from the current $111.93/MWh. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast around $110/MWh, but the 07:30 AEST interval drops sharply to approximately $85–$88/MWh, and by 08:00 AEST the forward curve is pointing to around $33/MWh. Overnight intervals from 08:30 AEST onwards are forecast in negative to low single-digit territory through to approximately 13:00 AEST, with some intervals projected as low as -$25/MWh around 10:00–10:30 AEST. This overnight trough profile reflects anticipated strong wind output against low Sunday night demand, a pattern consistent with what the grid experienced in the previous overnight period.

Traders and engineers should note that AEMO has issued a significant volume of active "Prices Subject to Review" market notices covering intervals from 03:00 through to 06:30 AEST this morning, all cited under Clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. The 03:25 AEST interval has already been reviewed and prices confirmed unchanged, as has the 02:25 AEST interval. All remaining notices from 03:30 AEST through to 06:30 AEST remain active and unresolved. The flagged intervals coincide with the period of deep negative pricing and very low demand, suggesting AEMO is scrutinising dispatch inputs during that trough. Participants with positions in those intervals should treat the associated prices as provisional pending final determination.