commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $100.93/MWh with demand at 5,710 MW at 06:30 AEST, placing the market in a moderately elevated but stable evening window. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been pronounced: demand peaked at 7,691 MW around 17:50 AEST (UTC 07:50) with prices holding in the $92–$111/MWh range through the morning peak, then softened progressively as demand fell through the afternoon to a trough near 5,600–5,700 MW. The correlation is clear — each 500–600 MW step down in demand from the 7,500 MW morning peak translated to roughly $15–25/MWh price relief, with prices compressing into the high $60s–low $80s through the 01:00–09:00 UTC window (11:00–19:00 AEST).

The overnight trough tells an equally sharp story. Demand bottomed near 3,988 MW around 10:50 UTC (20:50 AEST) and prices ran negative, reaching as low as -$8.80/MWh, sustained for several hours through 11:00–13:00 UTC. That sub-4,000 MW demand level is characteristic of Queensland's post-midnight floor, where supply capacity runs well ahead of load and marginal generators price aggressively to maintain dispatch. Current demand of 5,710 MW represents the system already rebuilding from that trough, with the morning ramp underway and prices returning above $100/MWh — consistent with the pattern seen at the equivalent point in today's cycle.

The most recent AEMO forecast (issued 06:01 AEST) targets $89.74/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, implying prices ease modestly as demand climbs into the morning peak but supply keeps pace. Earlier forecasts for that same interval were significantly lower ($40–$65/MWh range through the day), with the progressive upward revision tracking the demand build in real time. For the 07:30 AEST interval, the latest forecast sits at $57.57/MWh — suggesting a price pullback as the morning's initial demand surge is met by committed baseload. Black coal is supplying 2,913 MW and hydro 86 MW at current generation data, with solar contributing just 1.3 MW at this pre-dawn hour; that solar figure will rise sharply from around 08:00–09:00 AEST, which typically acts as a price suppressant through mid-morning even as demand climbs.

Traders should note that AEMO has issued an extensive series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 03:00 through 06:30 AEST today — spanning the pre-dawn negative price period and the early morning ramp. Two intervals (02:25 and 03:25 AEST) have been confirmed unchanged. The volume of active review notices introduces settlement uncertainty across a significant portion of this morning's trading; positions referencing those intervals carry retroactive price revision risk until AEMO completes its review. The primary demand-side risk for the remainder of today is the speed of the morning ramp — if demand tracks above 7,500 MW before solar output materialises, prices above $110/MWh are plausible in the 08:00–09:30 AEST window, replicating the brief spike to $